Tag Archives: cashrate

RBA is copying the Fed as Michael Knox forecast

Posted on June 7, 2022 by Gene Tunny

In my previous post, I discussed my latest podcast chat with Morgans Chief Economist Michael Knox who forecast the RBA would today increase the cash rate to 0.85%, as it did. As Michael noted, the RBA has been copying the … Continue reading →

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Inflation & interest rates chat with 4BC’s Scott Emerson

Posted on January 26, 2022 by Gene Tunny

Yesterday afternoon I had a quick chat with Scott Emerson on his 4BC Drive program about the accelerating CPI inflation revealed by the ABS yesterday (see chart above) and what it means for interest rates, with bank chief economists now … Continue reading →

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QEW week that was video – coal, negative gearing & the economic outlook

Posted on February 23, 2019 by Gene Tunny

Posts from me and other commentators mentioned or alluded to in this video include: Housing industry round table with Treasurer Frydenberg at Parliament House Latest Qld wages growth and Qld labour market summary from Nick Behrens WTF happened to BNE-CNS? … Continue reading →

Posted in Cairns, China, Climate change, Housing, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Qld: hot or not? My presentation at the Brisbane Club on Wednesday 6 February

Posted on February 6, 2019 by Gene Tunny

It was a great day to give an economic outlook presentation, with RBA Governor Philip Lowe announcing a change in monetary policy guidance, from saying the next rate movement would most likely be up, to saying the cash rate may … Continue reading →

Posted in Infrastructure, Macroeconomy, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Michael Knox on why the RBA won’t hike interest rates any time soon

Posted on December 20, 2017 by Gene Tunny

In today’s Financial Review, economics correspondent Jacob Greber observed: The RBA has gone more than seven years now without raising interest rates, the longest span since the official cash rate was introduced in the early 1990s. Indeed, on Melbourne Cup … Continue reading →

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US recovery on track, while Australian economists wait anxiously for latest National Accounts

Posted on December 4, 2016 by Gene Tunny

The latest US jobs data show an economy that is growing quite nicely, with 178,000 new jobs over the last month, and with unemployment falling to 4.6%, its lowest rate since the financial crisis (see chart below). However, the market … Continue reading →

Posted in Agriculture, Macroeconomy, Mining, North Queensland, Townsville, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

New motor vehicle sales lower in Qld than before financial crisis

Posted on May 18, 2016 by Gene Tunny

New motor vehicle sales data for April released by the ABS yesterday support the RBA Board’s decision to cut the cash rate on Budget day earlier this month, with sales down 2.5% in April nationwide, and down 7.7% in Queensland, … Continue reading →

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Don’t miss 16 June Brisbane speech by RBA Deputy Governor Philip Lowe, the Bank’s next Governor

Posted on May 10, 2016 by Gene Tunny

At a lunchtime event at Tattersall’s Club in Brisbane yesterday, after he predicted another interest rate cut this year in either June or August, Dr Chris Caton, BT’s Chief Economist, noted that “Interest rate changes are like cockroaches.” That is, … Continue reading →

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RBA to address ESA Qld seminar on recent labour market developments

Posted on July 21, 2015 by Gene Tunny

As Australia has experienced below-trend economic growth recently, and the unemployment rate has crept up to around 6 per cent, reducing the bargaining power of employees, wages growth has fallen (chart above). This in turn has contributed to relatively low … Continue reading →

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RBA will almost certainly cut cash rate, but economy may be stronger than it thinks

Posted on April 30, 2015 by Gene Tunny

Peter Martin, arguably the top economics journalist in Australia, appears to have been briefed by an RBA insider that the Bank will cut the cash rate next week to 2 per cent, a record low, and I’ve little doubt this … Continue reading →

Posted in Macroeconomy, Retail trade | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 6 Comments