Monthly Archives: May 2013

Brisbane ABC radio interview from this morning – why is budget forecasting so difficult?

Steve Austin of 612 ABC Brisbane asked me an interesting question this morning: why is budget forecasting so difficult for Treasury departments? You can listen to my answer at this link: The Upcoming Budget For further information on the challenges … Continue reading

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Qld defies national trend in capital spending – Qld resources sector investment hasn’t peaked yet

Consistent with yesterday’s data on construction activity (see my post from this morning), ABS data released today show private sector capital spending in Queensland has not yet fallen from a peak, as national capital spending has due to a drop … Continue reading

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Resources sector investment hasn’t peaked yet in Qld – we now lead Australia in construction

Unlike the rest of Australia, construction activity increased in Queensland in the March quarter. This was due to heavy, so-called engineering construction, no doubt resources sector-related, as residential and non-residential building activity (i.e. houses, flats, office buildings, shopping centres, etc) continues … Continue reading

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Did the financial crisis lead to an increase in Queensland’s crime rate?

Under its open data policy, the Queensland Government yesterday released a very interesting data set on criminal offences on a monthly basis since July 1997. Recalling the work of Nobel laureate Gary Becker on the economic determinants of crime, I … Continue reading

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Government has to rely on inefficient taxes to fix budget – GST reform needed

Among other 2013-14 Queensland Budget decisions, Treasurer Tim Nicholls today announced that the Government would be: Increasing the insurance duty on general insurance products from 7 to 9 per cent to assist the state in funding the NDIS (Disability Care … Continue reading

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Could Victorian manufacturing job losses lead to an increase in interstate migration to Qld?

In a post last Thursday in response to the announced Ford plant closures, Mark Beath at Loose Change (Car crash!) wondered whether job losses in Victoria could lead to a revival of interstate migration to Queensland from Victoria, which is … Continue reading

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Potential impact on Ford sales of plant closures

Jeff Waters of ABC News Victoria interviewed me today regarding the potential impact on Ford sales of “badwill” and anxiety over servicing and parts availability created by the announced plant closures: Buyers cautious after Ford’s announced closures I told Jeff … Continue reading

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Future of Australian car industry depends a lot on the exchange rate

It’s been clear for a long time – well, all the time since Mitsubishi shut down in early 2008 – that Ford was the next Mitsubishi, so today’s plant closures aren’t that unexpected. Once again, as I more-or-less observed in … Continue reading

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Resources sector investment has peaked, but likely to remain strong for a few years yet

The Australian Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics released its latest review of Resources and Energy Projects today (see Committed investment in resources and energy major projects at peak). It shows that although resources sector capital expenditure has peaked, it should … Continue reading

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Surat Basin FIFO/DIDO workers to peak this year

Queensland Treasury released its non-resident population projections for the Surat Basin today. They show that fly-in, fly-out (FIFO) and drive-in, drive-out (DIDO) worker numbers will peak this year at around 8,600 and decline over the next few years as the … Continue reading

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