Category Archives: Macroeconomy

Why the National Accounts matter: podcast chat with Brendan Markey-Towler

This century’s great trends in the Australian economy are evident in the National Accounts data (Chart 1):  a halving of the relative economic contribution of domestic manufacturing, partly due to the car industry shutdown;  the periodic resources booms which have … Continue reading

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RBA review: why it’s necessary and what it should recommend

The RBA is in the spotlight at the moment as there’s a risk its monetary tightening will crash the housing market and broader economy. Arguably, it should have acted earlier to raise rates and to stop its quantitative easing. Even … Continue reading

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Qld Gross State Product was up 22% in dollar terms in 2021-22

Hidden in a note to its economic forecasts table in the state budget was the extraordinary estimate from Queensland Treasury that, in nominal dollar terms, the state economy expanded 22% last financial year, 2021-22 (see the chart below based on … Continue reading

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Qld state budget: thanks for the billions coal miners, now pay us even more

As I’ve been forecasting for months now, the Queensland state budget is in much better shape than the state Treasury forecast back in December. Higher royalties, stamp duty, and other taxes helped deliver a $1.9 billion operating surplus in 2021-22 … Continue reading

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Qld hospitality sector has had stronger recovery than NSW and Victorian sectors

Earlier this month, Queensland Airports boss Amelia Evans was reported by the Courier-Mail as saying that travel was bouncing back strongly. Queensland Airports operates the Gold Coast, Townsville, Mount Isa, and Longreach airports, so Ms Evans would have a good … Continue reading

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Qld & Australia exporting lower volumes but earning more, due to higher coal and iron ore prices

The pandemic and China’s trade restrictions have no doubt had some adverse effects on commodity volumes exported from Queensland, but super high commodity prices, associated partly with the war in Ukraine, have more than offset those impacts when it comes … Continue reading

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Japan is Qld’s top export destination once again, but only by a small margin

Thanks to the Japanese Ambassador for highlighting that Japan has overtaken China to return to being the top destination for Queensland exports, as Japan was for several decades prior to 2013 (see the chart below including data up to April … Continue reading

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Qld has outperformed rest of Australia this decade so far

The May Labour Force data released by the ABS yesterday confirmed Queensland has outperformed the rest of Australia over the last couple of years. My view is that this is due to a range of factors including a surge in … Continue reading

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Consumer confidence indicators are very concerning

As always it’s important not to read too much into one piece of data, and generally I’ve been optimistic about the Australian economy and even more so about the Queensland economy over 2022-23, but the latest consumer confidence figures are … Continue reading

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Global stagflation risk increasing – my latest podcast episode

Earlier this week, the World Bank cut its global economic growth forecast and warned of the risk of 1970s-type global stagflation, with a coincidence of high inflation and low growth and high unemployment. I had already decided to cover stagflation … Continue reading

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