Category Archives: Macroeconomy

Brisbane Club presentation on Qld economy & latest Value of the Census post at the Mandarin

Posted on June 24, 2019 by

Last Friday, I presented my thoughts on the economic outlook and the recent Queensland state budget at the Brisbane Club. I highlighted the positives (e.g. resource exports, international education) and negatives (e.g. low business confidence and subdued business investment across … Continue reading →

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Good & bad news on Qld economy – avoids worst effects of property bust, but remains reliant on gov’t spending

Posted on June 6, 2019 by

Queensland state and local general government capital expenditures increased 13% in March quarter, rising to $2.79 billion, helping Queensland to record 0.5% growth in State Final Demand, the second highest growth rate in Australia (second to Tasmania with 0.7%). Part … Continue reading →

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Forty years after Thatcher’s election – CIS event in Brisbane on Thursday 2 May

Posted on April 30, 2019 by

This Friday, the 3rd of May, is the 40th anniversary of the 1979 UK election which saw Margaret Thatcher become Prime Minister. It is doubtful that any UK Prime Minister since Thatcher will loom as large in our collective memory … Continue reading →

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Bad economic news keeps coming – declining job vacancies & inverted US yield curve

Posted on March 25, 2019 by

The federal Department of Jobs and Small Business published its February 2019 internet job vacancies data last week, and it revealed a continuation of the downward trend in job vacancies, which were 5.5% lower in Queensland and 4.0% lower nationally … Continue reading →

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Credit cycle in downswing phase

Posted on March 12, 2019 by

There is a lot of disappointing economic data coming out for Australia lately. Today the ABS released its January 2019 Lending to households and businesses estimates which  confirmed the credit cycle is in the downswing phase (see chart above). This … Continue reading →

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Is it nonsense to talk about a “GDP per capita recession”?

Posted on March 10, 2019 by

My colleague Nick Behrens from QEAS is critical of recent references to Australia’s “GDP per capita recession” by the media and the federal Opposition in his latest post A GDP per capita recession is nonsense. Recall that the December quarter … Continue reading →

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Qld economy was goosed up by gov’t spending in final quarter of 2018

Posted on March 7, 2019 by

Australia’s weak 0.2% GDP growth in December quarter has prompted talk of a “per capita recession”, as our economy has now been growing at a slower rate than the population for two consecutive quarters (see this SMH report). The national … Continue reading →

Posted in Macroeconomy, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 6 Comments