It was a great day to give an economic outlook presentation, with RBA Governor Philip Lowe announcing a change in monetary policy guidance, from saying the next rate movement would most likely be up, to saying the cash rate may well go down rather than up. I welcomed the announcement because, in addition to it being sensible given the discouraging indicators we’ve seen lately, it was consistent with the views I was expressing in my presentation. Thanks to Ross Elliott from APP Property and Infrastructure Specialists for hosting the seminar at the Brisbane Club I spoke at, along with Luke Dixon the head of Real Estate Research at AMP Capital. Ross seemed happy neither Luke nor I were “drinking the Kool-Aid”, and we were both measured and realistic about the economic outlook. You can download my presentation at this link:
Qld hot or not presentation 6 February 19
I started off by referring to recent disappointing indicators including the Suncorp-CCIQ Pulse business survey (see my post on the data) and the December 2018 retail trade data published yesterday by the ABS (see chart below). I also covered more positive indicators including international visitor expenditure and the coal price, now back over US $200/tonne for coking coal (see slide 8 in the presentation; thanks to QRC for the latest data).
Queensland Economy Watch 
Noting the recent slide in retail turnover for NSW and VIC, and the entrenched slide in home values in those states, do you see a correlation (or causality) in the data?
Thanks 800psi. Yes I do and I made that point in my spoken remarks. Consumption spending in those states was no doubt previously boosted by equity withdrawals from housing, but, with house prices falling, capital gains are falling (or turning negative) and providing less support for consumption spending. Thanks for the comment.