Author Archives: Gene Tunny

What is the fiscal impulse from the Australian Budget?

Posted on May 23, 2023 by Gene Tunny

The Australian Government is moving in the right direction, but not fast enough, with fiscal policy if it wants to fight inflation. It appears too reliant on the expected cessation of pandemic-related stimulated measures to support its claim that the … Continue reading →

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Qld economic outlook talk at Phil Di Bella’s Coffee Commune this Friday 19 May

Posted on May 16, 2023 by Gene Tunny

The big economic question for 2023 is how much the Australian economy will slow down in response to interest rate increases, regarding which we should expect more to come. Queensland’s economy will benefit from a high-performing mining sector, but there’s … Continue reading →

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Size and structure of the Qld economy: today vs 1939-40 using Colin Clark’s estimates

Posted on April 8, 2023 by Gene Tunny

Back in the nineties, a history-conscious Queensland Treasury official saved a 1944 chart on “Post-war Employment Planning” from the rubbish bin during an office cleanout (Figure 1). On his retirement from the public service, that official gave me the chart. … Continue reading →

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White Elephant Stampede – podcast chat w/ Scott Prasser

Posted on October 15, 2022 by Gene Tunny

Queensland has had more than its fair share of white elephant projects, including the Toowooomba Wellcamp quarantine facility and the Gold Coast desalination plant. The economics and politics of white elephants are considered in a new book from Connor Court … Continue reading →

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Regional economic divergence – podcast chat w/ Rob Sobyra, Construction Skills Qld

Posted on October 11, 2022 by Gene Tunny

I’ve reported on how the economic recovery has seen large falls in unemployment rates across Queensland, including in most regions (see Remarkable turnarounds for Townsville, Mackay, and Cairns). But I need to acknowledge that employment growth is still overwhelmingly in … Continue reading →

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National Electricity Market malfunction of June 2022: my latest podcast episode

Posted on September 10, 2022 by Gene Tunny

One of the biggest challenges facing advanced economies is maintaining reliable and reasonably priced electricity as we decarbonise to combat climate change. This year we’ve seen some ominous signs that this may not go well. The war in Ukraine has … Continue reading →

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Remarkable turnarounds for Townsville, Mackay, and Cairns

Posted on September 3, 2022 by Gene Tunny

In my upcoming Brisbane Club presentation on Tuesday, one chart I’ll show is of selected Queensland regional unemployment rates, highlighting how the economic recovery generally and a booming mining sector have translated into some extraordinarily low unemployment rates in some … Continue reading →

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Why the National Accounts matter: podcast chat with Brendan Markey-Towler

Posted on August 20, 2022 by Gene Tunny

This century’s great trends in the Australian economy are evident in the National Accounts data (Chart 1):  a halving of the relative economic contribution of domestic manufacturing, partly due to the car industry shutdown;  the periodic resources booms which have … Continue reading →

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RBA review: why it’s necessary and what it should recommend

Posted on August 9, 2022 by Gene Tunny

The RBA is in the spotlight at the moment as there’s a risk its monetary tightening will crash the housing market and broader economy. Arguably, it should have acted earlier to raise rates and to stop its quantitative easing. Even … Continue reading →

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Qld Gross State Product was up 22% in dollar terms in 2021-22

Posted on July 5, 2022 by Gene Tunny

Hidden in a note to its economic forecasts table in the state budget was the extraordinary estimate from Queensland Treasury that, in nominal dollar terms, the state economy expanded 22% last financial year, 2021-22 (see the chart below based on … Continue reading →

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