Monthly Archives: April 2015

RBA will almost certainly cut cash rate, but economy may be stronger than it thinks

Posted on April 30, 2015 by Gene Tunny

Peter Martin, arguably the top economics journalist in Australia, appears to have been briefed by an RBA insider that the Bank will cut the cash rate next week to 2 per cent, a record low, and I’ve little doubt this … Continue reading →

Posted in Macroeconomy, Retail trade | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 6 Comments

Bad day for developers in Queensland – risk to future investment and jobs

Posted on April 27, 2015 by Gene Tunny

At a time when the Queensland economy is experiencing a huge negative shock from the downturn in the resources sector, and at a time when the health of our recovering building industry is very important, it is discouraging that some … Continue reading →

Posted in Housing, Macroeconomy | Tagged , , , , , , | 10 Comments

On the End of Cheap China

Posted on April 23, 2015 by Gene Tunny

At the Venetian Macao earlier this week One of the best guides to the huge economic transformation that has taken place in China in recent decades is Shaun Rein’s The End of Cheap China. I’d agree with commentators who say … Continue reading →

Posted in China | Tagged , , , , , , | 11 Comments

Health & aged care will drive jobs growth in coming years

Posted on April 17, 2015 by Gene Tunny

The March labour force data released yesterday by the ABS show the Queensland unemployment rate has stabilised at around 6.5%, which, while relatively high (see chart above), is not too bad from a historical perspective, as I’ve noted before (Don’t … Continue reading →

Posted in Labour market, Population | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 6 Comments

Risk to Qld Budget of lower dividends from Govt-owned businesses

Posted on April 14, 2015 by Gene Tunny

In addition to royalties revenue being lower than previously forecast, a major risk to the Queensland State Budget in coming years is lower than expected dividends from government-owned businesses. Currently government-owned businesses contribute over $2 billion to the Budget or … Continue reading →

Posted in Budget | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Upcoming event – 2015 Qld Third Sector Economics Talks

Posted on April 10, 2015 by Gene Tunny

I’m delighted to be a keynote speaker at the upcoming ProBonoEconos and Young Economists event on the so-called third sector of non-profit organisations and charities on the evening of Thursday 7 May at QUT: 2015 Qld Third Sector Economics Talks … Continue reading →

Posted in Budget, nfps, Queensland Government, Social policy | Tagged , , , , , | 2 Comments

Qld coal exports decline of 5.5% big contributor to total exports decline

Posted on April 7, 2015 by Gene Tunny

Lower coal prices have translated into a decline in the value of Queensland’s coal exports (by 5.5% in the year to February 2015), contributing to a 1.6% decline in the value of Queensland’s total commodity exports over the same period … Continue reading →

Posted in Mining | Tagged , , , , , | 4 Comments

Upcoming panel discussion – End of the mining boom: What’s next?

Posted on April 6, 2015 by Gene Tunny

It’s clear the mining downturn is having significant adverse effects, such as large increases in unemployment in regions that are more dependent on mining, such as the Mackay and Fitzroy regions (see chart above, and also see the Courier-Mail report … Continue reading →

Posted in Macroeconomy, Mining | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

RACQ should push for demand management options such as congestion pricing

Posted on April 2, 2015 by Gene Tunny

I was surprised by this view attributed to RACQ Executive Manager Michael Roth in the Brisbane Times article Brisbane drivers spend three days a year stuck in traffic: Mr Roth said there were two ways to prevent worsening congestion rates … Continue reading →

Posted in Transport | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 14 Comments

Upcoming Young Economists Coffee Connections on taxi regulations and Uber

Posted on April 1, 2015 by Gene Tunny

Ian Harper’s Competition Policy Review has set a big agenda for the next, long-overdue wave of micro-economic reform in Australia, with recommendations calling for substantial deregulation of retail trading hours, pharmacies, liquor sales, imports of books and second-hand cars, and … Continue reading →

Posted in Transport | Tagged , , , , , , , | Leave a comment