Monthly Archives: April 2015

RBA will almost certainly cut cash rate, but economy may be stronger than it thinks

Peter Martin, arguably the top economics journalist in Australia, appears to have been briefed by an RBA insider that the Bank will cut the cash rate next week to 2 per cent, a record low, and I’ve little doubt this … Continue reading

Posted in Macroeconomy, Retail trade | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 6 Comments

Bad day for developers in Queensland – risk to future investment and jobs

At a time when the Queensland economy is experiencing a huge negative shock from the downturn in the resources sector, and at a time when the health of our recovering building industry is very important, it is discouraging that some … Continue reading

Posted in Housing, Macroeconomy | Tagged , , , , , , | 10 Comments

On the End of Cheap China

At the Venetian Macao earlier this week One of the best guides to the huge economic transformation that has taken place in China in recent decades is Shaun Rein’s The End of Cheap China. I’d agree with commentators who say … Continue reading

Posted in China | Tagged , , , , , , | 11 Comments

Health & aged care will drive jobs growth in coming years

The March labour force data released yesterday by the ABS show the Queensland unemployment rate has stabilised at around 6.5%, which, while relatively high (see chart above), is not too bad from a historical perspective, as I’ve noted before (Don’t … Continue reading

Posted in Labour market, Population | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 6 Comments

Risk to Qld Budget of lower dividends from Govt-owned businesses

In addition to royalties revenue being lower than previously forecast, a major risk to the Queensland State Budget in coming years is lower than expected dividends from government-owned businesses. Currently government-owned businesses contribute over $2 billion to the Budget or … Continue reading

Posted in Budget | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Upcoming event – 2015 Qld Third Sector Economics Talks

I’m delighted to be a keynote speaker at the upcoming ProBonoEconos and Young Economists event on the so-called third sector of non-profit organisations and charities on the evening of Thursday 7 May at QUT: 2015 Qld Third Sector Economics Talks … Continue reading

Posted in Budget, nfps, Queensland Government, Social policy | Tagged , , , , , | 2 Comments

Qld coal exports decline of 5.5% big contributor to total exports decline

Lower coal prices have translated into a decline in the value of Queensland’s coal exports (by 5.5% in the year to February 2015), contributing to a 1.6% decline in the value of Queensland’s total commodity exports over the same period … Continue reading

Posted in Mining | Tagged , , , , , | 4 Comments