Tag Archives: nationalaccounts

Big question now is how long and how deep the recession will be

Posted on June 3, 2020 by

The March quarter National Accounts released by the ABS today suggest Australia will have two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth in the first half of 2020, and hence the traditional definition of a recession will be satisfied. That said, … Continue reading →

Posted in Macroeconomy | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Overly optimistic reactions to discouraging GDP data

Posted on December 4, 2019 by

The RBA and the Government must be happy the media is accepting the Bank’s “gentle turning point” view of the Australian economy (e.g. see the AFR’s ‘Back on track’: GDP lifts to 1.7pc), but I can’t see how the September … Continue reading →

Posted in Macroeconomy, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Federal & state spending propping up national & state economies

Posted on September 4, 2019 by

I feel sorry for Treasurer Josh Frydenberg, who has the duty of talking up the economy regardless of what the National Accounts data are saying. As you’re no doubt aware by now, the June quarter 2019 National Accounts published by … Continue reading →

Posted in Macroeconomy, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Qld construction activity 16% lower than in June quarter last year

Posted on August 28, 2019 by

Back in February, I depressed several hundred people in the construction and property sectors who heard me speak about the economic outlook at various events around Brisbane (e.g. Qld: hot or not?). It was reasonably clear from building approvals and … Continue reading →

Posted in Macroeconomy, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment

Good & bad news on Qld economy – avoids worst effects of property bust, but remains reliant on gov’t spending

Posted on June 6, 2019 by

Queensland state and local general government capital expenditures increased 13% in March quarter, rising to $2.79 billion, helping Queensland to record 0.5% growth in State Final Demand, the second highest growth rate in Australia (second to Tasmania with 0.7%). Part … Continue reading →

Posted in Macroeconomy, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , | 2 Comments

Is it nonsense to talk about a “GDP per capita recession”?

Posted on March 10, 2019 by

My colleague Nick Behrens from QEAS is critical of recent references to Australia’s “GDP per capita recession” by the media and the federal Opposition in his latest post A GDP per capita recession is nonsense. Recall that the December quarter … Continue reading →

Posted in Macroeconomy, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Qld economy was goosed up by gov’t spending in final quarter of 2018

Posted on March 7, 2019 by

Australia’s weak 0.2% GDP growth in December quarter has prompted talk of a “per capita recession”, as our economy has now been growing at a slower rate than the population for two consecutive quarters (see this SMH report). The national … Continue reading →

Posted in Macroeconomy, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 6 Comments

Qld economy continues to disappoint

Posted on December 6, 2018 by

Queensland’s economic under-performance, which I’ve been commenting on regularly (e.g. see Deloitte’s weird definition of “strong employment growth”), is a major part of the reason why Australia’s GDP growth for September quarter came in lower than expected yesterday. The ABS … Continue reading →

Posted in Labour market, Macroeconomy, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Qld economy traveling nicely based on June quarter National Accounts data

Posted on September 6, 2017 by

Just a quick update on the June quarter National Accounts released by the ABS today. GDP growth was a healthy 0.8 percent in the June quarter, or around 3.3 percent in annualised terms, which I suspect is around the sustainable … Continue reading →

Posted in Macroeconomy, queensland, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Qld economy needs pick up in private sector investment

Posted on June 12, 2017 by

According to the latest National Accounts released by the ABS last week, private sector investment spending fell in Queensland over the March quarter (in seasonally adjusted terms) and State Final Demand would have fallen as well, if it were not … Continue reading →

Posted in Macroeconomy, Mining, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment