Tag Archives: recession

Threat of rolling lockdowns and longer border closures damaging business confidence

Posted on September 3, 2021 by Gene Tunny

It’s no wonder many in the Queensland business community are anxious and desperate, as the Courier-Mail is reporting, given the Premier’s apparent abandonment of the national plan on reopening the economy (see Queensland business suffering mental and financial health crisis … Continue reading →

Posted in Labour market, Macroeconomy | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

National leadership needed on interstate borders

Posted on August 19, 2020 by Gene Tunny

Unless we get a COVID-19 vaccine soon, we’re most likely facing years of profound economic and social pain. Every day brings more news of businesses that will never re-open and jobs lost (e.g. earlier this year Arc Dining closed permanently … Continue reading →

Posted in Macroeconomy, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments

Big question now is how long and how deep the recession will be

Posted on June 3, 2020 by Gene Tunny

The March quarter National Accounts released by the ABS today suggest Australia will have two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth in the first half of 2020, and hence the traditional definition of a recession will be satisfied. That said, … Continue reading →

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Catch up with CCIQ Chief Economist on dreadful business conditions & huge budget deficits

Posted on May 2, 2020 by Gene Tunny

Yesterday afternoon I caught up with CCIQ Chief Economist Dr Marcus Smith for a phone interview on the coronavirus-induced recession/mini-depression, and you can listen to the recording here: Highlights include: 3:50 – discussion of forecasts for double-digit unemployment rates in … Continue reading →

Posted in Budget, Cairns, Gold Coast, Macroeconomy, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

612 ABC Brisbane follow-up interview on AOFM bond auctions/gov’t borrowing

Posted on April 6, 2020 by Gene Tunny

As I told 612 ABC Brisbane Drive program host Steve Austin earlier this evening, the Australian Office of Financial Management (AOFM) had a good day today, running a successful $2 billion bond auction, selling $2 billion of bonds at a … Continue reading →

Posted in Budget, Macroeconomy, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

The Fast Depression – 10 million newly jobless Americans in just two weeks

Posted on April 3, 2020 by Gene Tunny

It is hard to overstate how rapidly economic conditions are deteriorating in economies affected by coronavirus, most particularly in the United States, which is seeing hitherto unbelievable numbers of people filing for unemployment benefits (see chart below). The 6.6 million … Continue reading →

Posted in Macroeconomy, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

New COVID-19 chat with Joe Branigan of Tulipwood Economics

Posted on March 22, 2020 by Gene Tunny

I’ve recorded another interview on the latest COVID-19 rescue package from the federal government, this time with my good friend and former Treasury colleague Joe Branigan, Director of Tulipwood Economics. Joe provides important context for the massive rescue package. He … Continue reading →

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Is it nonsense to talk about a “GDP per capita recession”?

Posted on March 10, 2019 by Gene Tunny

My colleague Nick Behrens from QEAS is critical of recent references to Australia’s “GDP per capita recession” by the media and the federal Opposition in his latest post A GDP per capita recession is nonsense. Recall that the December quarter … Continue reading →

Posted in Macroeconomy, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Qld economy was goosed up by gov’t spending in final quarter of 2018

Posted on March 7, 2019 by Gene Tunny

Australia’s weak 0.2% GDP growth in December quarter has prompted talk of a “per capita recession”, as our economy has now been growing at a slower rate than the population for two consecutive quarters (see this SMH report). The national … Continue reading →

Posted in Macroeconomy, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 6 Comments

Mining leads fall in private sector capital expenditure – Qld technical recession may extend into 2015

Posted on May 29, 2015 by Gene Tunny

The technical recession Queensland experienced in late 2014 may extend into early 2015 based on new ABS data showing the large drop in mining investment from its extraordinarily high levels has continued into the March quarter of 2015 (see chart … Continue reading →

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