Tag Archives: recession

Consumer confidence indicators are very concerning

Posted on June 16, 2022 by Gene Tunny

As always it’s important not to read too much into one piece of data, and generally I’ve been optimistic about the Australian economy and even more so about the Queensland economy over 2022-23, but the latest consumer confidence figures are … Continue reading →

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Global stagflation risk increasing – my latest podcast episode

Posted on June 11, 2022 by Gene Tunny

Earlier this week, the World Bank cut its global economic growth forecast and warned of the risk of 1970s-type global stagflation, with a coincidence of high inflation and low growth and high unemployment. I had already decided to cover stagflation … Continue reading →

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RBA’s next move: 25, 40, or 50 basis points? Michael Knox says 50 on Economics Explored

Posted on June 4, 2022 by Gene Tunny

Next Tuesday, the RBA will increase the cash rate again, but it’s uncertain by just how much. Reuters is reporting RBA to raise rates a modest 25 bps in June, some call for 40 bps, where bps stands for basis … Continue reading →

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Threat of rolling lockdowns and longer border closures damaging business confidence

Posted on September 3, 2021 by Gene Tunny

It’s no wonder many in the Queensland business community are anxious and desperate, as the Courier-Mail is reporting, given the Premier’s apparent abandonment of the national plan on reopening the economy (see Queensland business suffering mental and financial health crisis … Continue reading →

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National leadership needed on interstate borders

Posted on August 19, 2020 by Gene Tunny

Unless we get a COVID-19 vaccine soon, we’re most likely facing years of profound economic and social pain. Every day brings more news of businesses that will never re-open and jobs lost (e.g. earlier this year Arc Dining closed permanently … Continue reading →

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Big question now is how long and how deep the recession will be

Posted on June 3, 2020 by Gene Tunny

The March quarter National Accounts released by the ABS today suggest Australia will have two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth in the first half of 2020, and hence the traditional definition of a recession will be satisfied. That said, … Continue reading →

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Catch up with CCIQ Chief Economist on dreadful business conditions & huge budget deficits

Posted on May 2, 2020 by Gene Tunny

Yesterday afternoon I caught up with CCIQ Chief Economist Dr Marcus Smith for a phone interview on the coronavirus-induced recession/mini-depression, and you can listen to the recording here: Highlights include: 3:50 – discussion of forecasts for double-digit unemployment rates in … Continue reading →

Posted in Budget, Cairns, Gold Coast, Macroeconomy, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

612 ABC Brisbane follow-up interview on AOFM bond auctions/gov’t borrowing

Posted on April 6, 2020 by Gene Tunny

As I told 612 ABC Brisbane Drive program host Steve Austin earlier this evening, the Australian Office of Financial Management (AOFM) had a good day today, running a successful $2 billion bond auction, selling $2 billion of bonds at a … Continue reading →

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The Fast Depression – 10 million newly jobless Americans in just two weeks

Posted on April 3, 2020 by Gene Tunny

It is hard to overstate how rapidly economic conditions are deteriorating in economies affected by coronavirus, most particularly in the United States, which is seeing hitherto unbelievable numbers of people filing for unemployment benefits (see chart below). The 6.6 million … Continue reading →

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New COVID-19 chat with Joe Branigan of Tulipwood Economics

Posted on March 22, 2020 by Gene Tunny

I’ve recorded another interview on the latest COVID-19 rescue package from the federal government, this time with my good friend and former Treasury colleague Joe Branigan, Director of Tulipwood Economics. Joe provides important context for the massive rescue package. He … Continue reading →

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