Tag Archives: australia

Nice words from Chris Joye in the AFR regarding my question to the RBA Governor

Posted on June 12, 2015 by Gene Tunny

Leading financial economist Chris Joye has written a great piece in the Australian Financial Review on the issue of how long interest rates may stay at the very low levels they are now (RBA’s Glenn Stevens wrong on low rates … Continue reading →

Posted in Macroeconomy | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment

RBA should leave fiscal policy advice to the Treasury

Posted on June 11, 2015 by Gene Tunny

RBA Governor Glenn Stevens gave an odd speech in Brisbane yesterday, in which he more-or-less suggested the federal Government should try to offset the demand shock from the end of the mining boom with expanded infrastructure investment, and that now … Continue reading →

Posted in Macroeconomy | Tagged , , , , , , | 4 Comments

Qld economy enduring shock from end of mining boom as well as could be expected

Posted on June 4, 2015 by Gene Tunny

The March quarter National Accounts data released yesterday surprised on the upside with quarterly growth at 0.9 per cent, but as some commentators have noted there remains a downside risk over the next 12-24 months from much lower capital expenditure … Continue reading →

Posted in Macroeconomy, Mining | Tagged , , , , , | 2 Comments

New evidence stimulus worsened our competitiveness from Makin & Ratnasiri

Posted on May 20, 2015 by Gene Tunny

Griffith University Economics Professor Tony Makin and his co-author Shyama Ratnasiri have just published an interesting paper (Competitiveness and government expenditure: The Australian example) presenting new econometric evidence that suggests fiscal stimulus in response to the financial crisis worsened Australia’s … Continue reading →

Posted in Macroeconomy | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Budget briefing – speech notes and slides

Posted on May 18, 2015 by Gene Tunny

Last Friday afternoon I gave a presentation on the 2015-16 Budget at a private function I organised at the Tattersall’s Club in Brisbane. My slides are available for download (Budget briefing 15 May 15). Budget briefing Good afternoon. Today I’d … Continue reading →

Posted in Budget | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Trajectory to surplus not the same thing as budgeting for a surplus

Posted on May 13, 2015 by Gene Tunny

As I mentioned to Pat Hession on Townsville ABC radio yesterday afternoon, the 2015-16 Federal Budget simply kicks the can down the road, as they say, leaving it for a future Government (or this one if it stays in power) … Continue reading →

Posted in Budget | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 7 Comments

Budget measures insufficient to avoid risk of permanent deficits

Posted on May 12, 2015 by Gene Tunny

Tonight’s Federal Budget will be very disappointing, as the expected measures do not go anywhere near enough to reducing the risk that Australia will end up in a state of permanent deficit, as I’ve previously suggested it would if we … Continue reading →

Posted in Budget | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Qld retail trade grows strongly in March quarter – good sign economy is re-balancing post-mining boom

Posted on May 6, 2015 by Gene Tunny

The latest retail turnover data released by the ABS today confirm my view that growing consumption spending will help offset the negative impacts of the end of the mining boom (see my speech on the end of the mining boom). … Continue reading →

Posted in Retail trade | Tagged , , , , | 3 Comments

Residential building will help economy adjust to end of mining boom

Posted on May 4, 2015 by Gene Tunny

March quarter building approvals figures released by the ABS today show that the residential building industry, no doubt encouraged by very low interest rates,  will help the economy adjust to the end of the mining boom (see the Queensland data … Continue reading →

Posted in Housing | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

RBA will almost certainly cut cash rate, but economy may be stronger than it thinks

Posted on April 30, 2015 by Gene Tunny

Peter Martin, arguably the top economics journalist in Australia, appears to have been briefed by an RBA insider that the Bank will cut the cash rate next week to 2 per cent, a record low, and I’ve little doubt this … Continue reading →

Posted in Macroeconomy, Retail trade | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 6 Comments