Category Archives: Macroeconomy

Is the Queensland economy at a standstill?

Posted on August 18, 2015 by Gene Tunny

I’m unsure if the Queensland economy is at a standstill, as suggested by the federal Treasurer Joe Hockey (see today’s Courier-Mail report), but, at best, it is moving slowly and sluggishly. This has meant the Queensland unemployment rate has remained … Continue reading →

Posted in Housing, Macroeconomy, Tourism | Tagged , , , , | 2 Comments

RBA to address ESA Qld seminar on recent labour market developments

Posted on July 21, 2015 by Gene Tunny

As Australia has experienced below-trend economic growth recently, and the unemployment rate has crept up to around 6 per cent, reducing the bargaining power of employees, wages growth has fallen (chart above). This in turn has contributed to relatively low … Continue reading →

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Undoubtedly China crash bigger risk to Australia than Grexit

Posted on July 7, 2015 by Gene Tunny

The news.com.au finance reporter Frank Chung is right to note the risks to Australia from a possible crash in China are much greater than the risks from the Greek crisis (see Chinese chaos worse than Greece). We are much more … Continue reading →

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Strong LNG-led export growth means Qld should record economic recovery in first half of 2015

Posted on July 6, 2015 by Gene Tunny

Queensland appears on track to record a recovery from the technical recession of the second-half of 2014, due to a large increase in exports in recent months, in part associated with the LNG now being shipped out of Gladstone (see … Continue reading →

Posted in Exports, Macroeconomy | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Curtis Island LNG projects more-or-less doubled heavy construction activity in peak period

Posted on July 1, 2015 by Gene Tunny

About the great American mountain-man Jim Bridger, Johnny Horton sang “That he was making history never once occurred to him.” I wonder if the men and women who have worked on the Curtis Island LNG plants have realised that they … Continue reading →

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Great initiative from Qld Treasury to explain forecasts in Economic Society seminar

Posted on June 17, 2015 by Gene Tunny

As Secretary of the Queensland branch of the Economic Society of Australia, I’m very pleased that, on Wednesday 15 July, the day after the Treasurer delivers the State Budget, a senior Queensland Treasury official, Greg Uptin, will give a briefing … Continue reading →

Posted in Macroeconomy | Tagged , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Nice words from Chris Joye in the AFR regarding my question to the RBA Governor

Posted on June 12, 2015 by Gene Tunny

Leading financial economist Chris Joye has written a great piece in the Australian Financial Review on the issue of how long interest rates may stay at the very low levels they are now (RBA’s Glenn Stevens wrong on low rates … Continue reading →

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RBA should leave fiscal policy advice to the Treasury

Posted on June 11, 2015 by Gene Tunny

RBA Governor Glenn Stevens gave an odd speech in Brisbane yesterday, in which he more-or-less suggested the federal Government should try to offset the demand shock from the end of the mining boom with expanded infrastructure investment, and that now … Continue reading →

Posted in Macroeconomy | Tagged , , , , , , | 4 Comments

Qld Treasury’s forecasting record has improved in last few years, but big test to come

Posted on June 9, 2015 by Gene Tunny

In the Mid-Year Fiscal and Economic Review at the end of 2014, Queensland Treasury downgraded its economic growth forecast for Queensland in 2014-15 from 3% to 2.5%, to reflect the weaker economic outlook. After Queensland’s technical recession in the last … Continue reading →

Posted in Budget, Macroeconomy | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 8 Comments

Qld economy enduring shock from end of mining boom as well as could be expected

Posted on June 4, 2015 by Gene Tunny

The March quarter National Accounts data released yesterday surprised on the upside with quarterly growth at 0.9 per cent, but as some commentators have noted there remains a downside risk over the next 12-24 months from much lower capital expenditure … Continue reading →

Posted in Macroeconomy, Mining | Tagged , , , , , | 2 Comments