Qld receiving huge economic shock from resources sector capital spending decline

construction_work_done_Dec_14

The scale of the negative economic shock Queensland is currently experiencing from the decline in resources sector investment is extraordinary, as revealed by new ABS data on construction work done released today (see chart above, noting “Engineering” covers the heavy construction associated with resources sector and other infrastructure projects). Total construction activity in Queensland in December quarter 2014 was $3.4 billion below its peak in September 2013. This is equivalent to around 4% of quarterly Gross State Product, which is a massive difference.

Obviously, the huge negative shock Queensland is experiencing has profound implications for the economy, and a large range of businesses that supply services to the resources sector are feeling the knock-on effects. So the new Queensland Government may well face further increases in unemployment. Unfortunately, state governments don’t have many levers to affect unemployment, and those that they do have are relatively expensive to use – e.g. directly employing people or boosting subsidies to apprenticeships and traineeships. It appears likely that the new Government will have a testing first year in office.

Posted in Macroeconomy, Mining | Tagged , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Should governments financially support elite sports whose players are such poor role models?

Suncorp-Stadium-Milton-Queensland

An example of massive government support for elite sport – Suncorp Stadium which cost nearly $300 million to upgrade in the early 2000s.

The drugs scandal that has engulfed the Gold Coast Titans raises a question about government support for elite sport, such as the Queensland Government’s commitment to provide $100 million for a Townsville Super Stadium, as a perceptive reader of this blog pointed out to me the other day. Presumably one of the major justifications for government support for elite sports, as opposed to support for amateur sports through grants to local clubs, is that elite sport players are role models for young people and that their sporting exploits encourage young people to participate in sport, improving public health and reducing health costs in the long-run.

The poor off-field behaviour of many elite sports people, however, suggests they are often poor role models. And it doesn’t appear that elite sports people, who are more prominent than ever in the community, promote participation in sport, with participation rates in organised sports having remained static or declined over the 2000s according to a CSIRO study. And it’s well known that rates of obesity and overweight have increased over the last couple of decades, suggesting that people aren’t participating in sports as regularly or vigorously as they once did. The Monash Obesity and Diabetes Institute notes that the prevalence of obesity in Australia has more than doubled in the last 20 years (see Obesity in Australia facts and figures).

So the support of successive governments for elite sports appears to have failed what must be one of its major objectives: to encourage participation in sport and improve public health. Unfortunately, much of the assistance to sport is poorly targeted, as is the case for the Townsville Super Stadium which appears unworthy of public support given Townsville already has a football stadium, and surely there are better uses for $100 million in the city?

Governments across Australia should urgently review levels of assistance they provide to elite sports. The assistance doesn’t appear to be achieving any valuable public policy objectives, and the money would be better spent improving health and education services. Finally, several of the elite sporting organising bodies such as the NRL do very well out of TV rights and, if a new stadium is required for the good of the sport, then they should pay for it.

Posted in Industry policy | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 8 Comments

One-in-four part-time workers underemployed

Queensland’s relatively weak labour market is reflected not only in the unemployment rate of 6.5%, but in a relatively high rate of underemployment, with around one-in-four part-time workers in Queensland underemployed (i.e. preferring to work more hours than they actually do). This corresponds to around 180,000 part-time workers (see chart below based on ABS data published yesterday). The predominance of women in underemployment reflects the predominance of women in part-time employment generally.

Underemployment is an important aspect of labour utilisation, which is a broader measure of the state of the labour market than the unemployment rate. As Pete Faulkner has previously posted on, labour utilisation has worsened in Queensland in recent years (Underutilisation data). So Queensland’s lacklustre economy impacts not only those without jobs, but those with jobs, too, particularly casual workers who can’t get as many hours work as they would like.

Underemployed_Feb_14

Posted in Labour market | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment

Time for a Sensible Debate on Broadening the GST Net – Guest post from Michael Willis

Main_Building_Brisbane_Boys'_College_04

Last week, I spoke with Ben Davis from 4BC about broadening the GST (see 4BC interview on KPMG’s analysis of GST increase for CPA Australia). Our discussion was pretty high-level, and there were many detailed issues we could have discussed further. For example, parents of students at private schools such as Brisbane Boys’ College (image above; see attribution below) would be significantly affected by any broadening of the GST. And the impacts may not stop there, as explained by Michael Willis in a guest post below. Michael is a Senior Advisor at Effective Governance Pty Ltd. He is also the Honorary Treasurer of Independent Schools Queensland. The opinions expressed here are his own.

Time for a Sensible Debate on Broadening the GST Net

The case for broadening the GST net needs to be carefully considered. The argument is that the GST would be more efficient and fair if applied more broadly, to include items that were initially exempted, such as food, school fees and health insurance. A supporting case is also made for some compensation for affected low income consumers. Much of the argument for this change has focussed on two policy dimensions – the fiscal aim of balancing budgets and the desire to equitably compensate for the regressive nature of the GST – but is in peril of ignoring a third and critical element, the need for an efficient taxation-welfare regime.

On the question of school fees, for example, NATSEM has estimated that extending the GST to school fees would raise an extra $790 million in revenue. However, we need to consider more broadly what might happen if school fees were increased for a ten percent GST.

This ten percent school fee hike won’t hit just the parents of students in the so-called “elite” schools. It will affect many families in outer suburbs and regional areas, who often battle to send their children to low-fee schools run by local church and charitable groups. Such a major impost will significantly affect the spending choices of these families. Some will opt out of private schooling altogether, sending their children to the public system. Others may choose a lower fee school, to offset the fee hike.

The Productivity Commission’s latest Report on Government Services 2015 shows that it costs governments an average of $6,891 more each year to educate a student in a public school than in a private school. That’s a whopping $8.7 billion that private schools save the taxpayers every year. Private school parents cover around half the cost of a child’s education through their fees. We also need to recall that, under the current needs-based funding system, the government subsidy for a student in a low fee private school is much higher than for one in a higher fee school. Higher fee schools have parents paying over 80% of their operating costs, with only a fraction of government help.

Therefore, every time a family switches to a public school, or to a lower-fee private school, it costs the taxpayer more in subsidies.

Continue reading

Posted in Budget, Education, Tax | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Unemployment much higher in North Qld, Wide Bay, Ipswich and outer Brisbane metro area

The regional dimension to Queensland unemployment is readily apparent from the following unemployment rate maps I’ve produced based on Queensland Treasury’s handy information brief on regional unemployment. Here’s the map for the whole State:

Unemployment_by_region_Jan15

My old home town of Townsville has been faring badly over the last 12 months, with the unemployment rate increasing 2.3 percentage points to 8.6% (based on Treasury’s 12 month moving average estimates). Hopefully the Townsville unemployment rate has already peaked, which some interesting analysis by Pete Faulkner suggests might have occurred (Trend Unemployment rates improve but Cairns and Townsville is a “Tale of Two Cities”).

A close up map of regional unemployment rates in SEQ is presented below. The map makes it pretty clear that, if you’re struggling to find a job in SEQ, you should seriously consider moving closer to Brisbane CBD.

Unemployment by SA4 January 15_SEQ

Posted in Labour market | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 7 Comments

4BC interview on KPMG’s analysis of GST increase for CPA Australia

In response to a new report from CPA Australia (tax-reform-in-australia), the Prime Minister has ruled out changes to the GST, which is a bit of a shame, because changes to the GST should be part of any comprehensive package to reform the taxation system. As I mentioned to Ben Davis on 4BC radio yesterday afternoon, the KPMG analysis for CPA Australia is correct that there would be economic benefits from broadening the GST base or increasing its rate, and using the extra revenue to remove or cut less efficient taxes such as stamp duty or income tax. And the KPMG analysis is clever in that it shows how this can be done while not adversely affecting poorer households by funding increased welfare payments with some of the additional GST revenue.

However, I suggested to Ben that I have my doubts as to whether all extra GST revenue would be used for tax cuts or increased welfare payments in practice. Both the States (which the GST revenue technically flows to) and the Commonwealth (which could effectively take some of the extra revenue by cutting other grants to the States) would be tempted to use some of the additional GST revenue to fix their budgetary problems. Hence, households might rightly be suspicious of any move to change the GST. They understand that GST increases would increase prices, but the extra revenue might not necessarily be returned to them. This is unfortunate, as there would be much merit in having a greater reliance on GST for revenue raising, as I’ve previously noted:

New Treasury modelling supports change in tax mix towards GST

Dr Parkinson right that the GST should be broadened

GST changes should be considered as part of wide-ranging tax and expenditure review

Government has to rely on inefficient taxes to fix budget – GST reform needed

Posted in Tax | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

CIS still seeking students & recent graduates for Liberty & Society weekends

The Centre for Independent Studies (CIS) is still seeking students and recent graduates to participate in either of its upcoming Liberty & Society weekends, with one in Sydney over 8-10 May and the other in Perth over 17-19 July. These weekends are an excellent introduction to classical liberal ideas and a great opportunity to meet and engage with a bunch of brilliant young people interested in economics and public policy from across Australia and New Zealand. In a post last year, I wrote about my own positive experience with the L&S weekend. Applications for the Sydney weekend can be made here, and applications for the Perth weekend here.

Alumni of the L&S weekends can later participate in Advanced L&S weekends, which offer even more intensive philosophical discussion and the opportunity to engage with some truly outstanding people. For example, at the Advanced L&S weekend held in Sydney in September last year, former New Zealand Finance Minister Ruth Richardson inspired us to strive hard to achieve big policy reforms, as she did in her career, and also offered us some excellent health and wellbeing advice – e.g. the most important appointment you make everyday is with yourself. It was great advice that I’m sure inspired many of us to go to the gym or for a run the next day!

Please pass this on to any students or recent graduates you think might be interested.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

NSW Govt risks annoying US conservatives by subsidising Redford-Blanchett film – my comments on Breitbart

I’ve been quoted by Breitbart regarding NSW Government funding provided to the Truth film, starring Robert Redford and Cate Blanchett, which filmed in Sydney last year:

Hollywood to Release Film Defending Dan Rather in Wake of Brian Williams Stolen Valor Lies

The film covers Rathergate, in which veteran US broadcaster Dan Rather made accusations regarding former President George W Bush’s military record based on apparently forged documents. I’m not an expert on Rathergate, and have no wish to get involved in the debate, but I’m happy to say there is no defensible reason for the NSW Government to provide financial support to the film. Here are the relevant paragraphs from the Breitbart article:

In an odd twist, Australian taxpayers are subsidizing this bit of far-left propaganda, starring Robert Redford as Rather and Australian Cate Blanchett as Mapes, which was filmed over a two month period this past fall on location in Sydney at an estimated cost of $10 million. While officials at the New South Wales film development group acknowledge the film is receiving financial support from the government there, they won’t say how much.

But Gene Tunny, a former manager in the Australian Treasury with extensive experience in advising on industry assistance policies across Australia, and a well known critic of the country’s film subsidization policy, told Breitbart News the amount probably exceeded $1 million.

“My best guess is that the NSW Government is subsidising Truth by around $1-2 million, based on my experience in advising on government industry assistance across Australia,” Tunny told Breitbart News.

“It could be more than this, but the NSW Government won’t tell us. Australian State governments label agreements with film producers ‘commercial-in-confidence’, even though disclosure is in the public interest,” Tunny added…

…“This is clearly a poor use of taxpayers’ money. The Truth film will make no discernible contribution to Australian culture. And the NSW Government is wasting money supporting temporary jobs in an industry that is largely unviable without Government subsidies,” Tunny told Breitbart News.

My previous comments on government assistance to the film industry include:

Drum opinion piece – Taxpayer money wasted chasing film productions

Moochers making movies

Posted in Industry policy | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Queensland’s top five customers – China has taken top spot from Japan in recent years

Earlier this month, the Queensland Government Statistician’s Office released a useful set of trade reports on Queensland’s trade with international economies. In our merchandise exports data (see chart below), it’s not surprising to see the importance of China, which has overtaken Japan as the number one destination for Queensland’s exports in recent years. Coal, other minerals and metals make up the bulk of our exports to China and Hong Kong (see Table 3 of the China and Hong Kong report).

Qld_export_destinations

Posted in Trade | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Property law review should be picked up by new Qld Government – pets & smoking are contentious issues

It appears that just before the recent election campaign the previous Queensland Government launched a review of property law with a focus on body corporate matters, including the regulation of pets and smoking in apartment buildings. I trust that the new Queensland Government will pick up this review and consider any legal changes it deems necessary in the public interest.

Brisbane-based economist Dr Stephen Thornton made an interesting submission to the review (Dr.StephenThornton_BCCMPropertyLawReview_30.01.2015), in which he argued for a clear right for an apartment owner or occupier to keep at least one pet, without the consent of the body corporate, subject to reasonable conditions (e.g. on noise, animal behaviour, etc). Stephen makes an interesting case based on the economic, financial and social impacts that would be associated with the higher rate of pet ownership that would occur as a result of his policy change. There is no doubt that pets are big business – according to estimates in Stephen’s submission over $1 billion is spent on cats and dogs in Queensland each year – and that a higher rate of pet ownership would result in additional economic activity and jobs in pet-related industries.

Stephen estimates that, if the proportion of Queensland apartment dwellers with pets increased from his current estimated rate of 5% to say 25%, there would be additional pet-related expenditure of $80-160 million per annum and additional employment of around 550-600 people in the medium-term (see p. 4 of his submission). Stephen also considers important financial benefits via an estimated property price uplift of 5% and important health benefits (e.g. reduced stress) associated with owning pets. In summary, it’s a very interesting submission that deserves consideration by the new Government.

cat_loving_townhouse_livingSlipper, a former Paddington cat who loved townhouse living.

Posted in Queensland Government | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments