Category Archives: Macroeconomy

Business confidence in Queensland – the most reliable estimate (Westpac-CCIQ) is the most worrying

Posted on June 1, 2015 by Gene Tunny

There is currently a large disparity among business confidence survey results for Queensland. The Sensis and Westpac Group-CCIQ reports for the March quarter suggest business confidence is relatively low, but the NAB report for the month of April, which the … Continue reading →

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Mining leads fall in private sector capital expenditure – Qld technical recession may extend into 2015

Posted on May 29, 2015 by Gene Tunny

The technical recession Queensland experienced in late 2014 may extend into early 2015 based on new ABS data showing the large drop in mining investment from its extraordinarily high levels has continued into the March quarter of 2015 (see chart … Continue reading →

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Qld losing economic State of Origin at the moment

Posted on May 27, 2015 by Gene Tunny

On the day of the first State of Origin game for 2015, it seems timely to reflect on Queensland’s recent economic performance relative to NSW. Alas, it has not been great, with Queensland actually recording a slight loss of jobs … Continue reading →

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Residential dwelling investment crucial to re-balancing of Qld economy

Posted on May 24, 2015 by Gene Tunny

Queensland Treasury’s latest set of State Accounts, which have created so much controversy (see my previous post on Qld’s technical recession), show just how extraordinary the private sector investment boom was in Queensland, with investment increasing as a share of … Continue reading →

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More on Qld’s late-2014 technical recession – Treasury should get out there and defend its figures

Posted on May 23, 2015 by Gene Tunny

I was flattered that the Queensland Treasurer Curtis Pitt, or possibly one of his staffers, shared my previous post on his Facebook timeline yesterday (screenshot below). It’s regrettable that the integrity of the Queensland Treasury has been questioned in the … Continue reading →

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Qld experiences technical recession as investment falls from elevated levels – no need to panic yet, though

Posted on May 21, 2015 by Gene Tunny

Watching the ABC News tonight, I had to laugh when ABC State Political Reporter Chris O’Brien prefaced opinions given by Nick Behrens from CCIQ and me on whether Queensland is in recession with that classic journalistic device “Opinions differ…” Well … Continue reading →

Posted in Macroeconomy | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 6 Comments

New evidence stimulus worsened our competitiveness from Makin & Ratnasiri

Posted on May 20, 2015 by Gene Tunny

Griffith University Economics Professor Tony Makin and his co-author Shyama Ratnasiri have just published an interesting paper (Competitiveness and government expenditure: The Australian example) presenting new econometric evidence that suggests fiscal stimulus in response to the financial crisis worsened Australia’s … Continue reading →

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Recommended reading on Keynes as a Universal Man

Posted on May 19, 2015 by Gene Tunny

One of the best books of the year is Richard Davenport-Hines’s Universal Man: The Seven Lives of John Maynard Keynes. These seven lives are: altruist, boy prodigy, official, public man, lover, connoisseur and envoy. The book emphasises Keynes as a … Continue reading →

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End of the mining boom – speech notes and slides

Posted on May 5, 2015 by Gene Tunny

In Brisbane today, in the theatre of Morgans Financial Limited, along with Griffith’s Tony Makin and Morgans’ Michael Knox, I spoke on “The end of the mining boom”, at an event organised by Griffith’s APEC Study Centre. My slides are … Continue reading →

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RBA will almost certainly cut cash rate, but economy may be stronger than it thinks

Posted on April 30, 2015 by Gene Tunny

Peter Martin, arguably the top economics journalist in Australia, appears to have been briefed by an RBA insider that the Bank will cut the cash rate next week to 2 per cent, a record low, and I’ve little doubt this … Continue reading →

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