Category Archives: Macroeconomy

Interest Rates, Australia’s 3 Biggest Challenges, Global Fertility Crash, & the Tobin Tax Debate w/ John Humphreys, Australian Taxpayers’ Alliance

Posted on July 12, 2025 by Gene Tunny

The RBA will occasionally make mistakes, but abolishing RBA independence, as some commentators have suggested after this week’s surprising cash rate decision, would be a bad idea. I defended central bank independence in my latest Australian Taxpayers’ Alliance live stream … Continue reading →

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Australia’s Productivity Problem: Can It Be Fixed? w/ John Humphreys, Australian Taxpayers’ Alliance

Posted on June 14, 2025 by Gene Tunny

In our latest Australian Taxpayers’ Alliance (ATA) livestream, ATA Chief Economist John Humphreys and I dissect the causes behind Australia’s productivity slump (Figure 1), analysing recent GDP data and the impacts of labour market policies, regulatory constraints, the high cost … Continue reading →

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How the Qld economy has changed in recent decades

Posted on February 26, 2024 by Gene Tunny

The state and national economies have experienced similar trends by industry since 2000. The big changes have been the 2-3x increase in the mining sector’s importance since China’s economic growth started significantly influencing the global economy in the early-2000s (Figure … Continue reading →

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The Queensland Economy Post-Palaszczuk

Posted on December 30, 2023 by Gene Tunny

Summary Given its strong potential, the Queensland economy should be doing much better than it is, particularly regarding its business and housing investment levels. Furthermore, the state has not had the rebound in manufacturing that Palaszczuk suggested at her final … Continue reading →

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Regional economic divergence – podcast chat w/ Rob Sobyra, Construction Skills Qld

Posted on October 11, 2022 by Gene Tunny

I’ve reported on how the economic recovery has seen large falls in unemployment rates across Queensland, including in most regions (see Remarkable turnarounds for Townsville, Mackay, and Cairns). But I need to acknowledge that employment growth is still overwhelmingly in … Continue reading →

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Why the National Accounts matter: podcast chat with Brendan Markey-Towler

Posted on August 20, 2022 by Gene Tunny

This century’s great trends in the Australian economy are evident in the National Accounts data (Chart 1):  a halving of the relative economic contribution of domestic manufacturing, partly due to the car industry shutdown;  the periodic resources booms which have … Continue reading →

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RBA review: why it’s necessary and what it should recommend

Posted on August 9, 2022 by Gene Tunny

The RBA is in the spotlight at the moment as there’s a risk its monetary tightening will crash the housing market and broader economy. Arguably, it should have acted earlier to raise rates and to stop its quantitative easing. Even … Continue reading →

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Qld Gross State Product was up 22% in dollar terms in 2021-22

Posted on July 5, 2022 by Gene Tunny

Hidden in a note to its economic forecasts table in the state budget was the extraordinary estimate from Queensland Treasury that, in nominal dollar terms, the state economy expanded 22% last financial year, 2021-22 (see the chart below based on … Continue reading →

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Qld state budget: thanks for the billions coal miners, now pay us even more

Posted on June 21, 2022 by Gene Tunny

As I’ve been forecasting for months now, the Queensland state budget is in much better shape than the state Treasury forecast back in December. Higher royalties, stamp duty, and other taxes helped deliver a $1.9 billion operating surplus in 2021-22 … Continue reading →

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Qld hospitality sector has had stronger recovery than NSW and Victorian sectors

Posted on June 20, 2022 by Gene Tunny

Earlier this month, Queensland Airports boss Amelia Evans was reported by the Courier-Mail as saying that travel was bouncing back strongly. Queensland Airports operates the Gold Coast, Townsville, Mount Isa, and Longreach airports, so Ms Evans would have a good … Continue reading →

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