The annual gross state product (GSP) data the ABS published on Friday revealed Queensland’s lacklustre economic growth of 2% in 2015-16 (compared with 2.8% nationally) was heavily influenced by the transition at the end of the mining boom. The data revealed the mining sector technically made the largest contribution of any sector to the 2% growth rate, with a 0.6 percentage point contribution associated largely with new LNG exports (see chart below). However, industries badly affected by the decline in mining construction and exploration activity, particularly construction, manufacturing and professional, scientific and technical services, all subtracted from GSP in 2015-16.
Other key points to note regarding the 2015-16 GSP data are:
- The ABS’s Queensland GSP growth estimate of 2% in 2015-16 is noticeably lower than the Queensland Treasury’s Budget time forecast of 3½%; and
- The resurgence of the public sector in 2015-16 was also a significant contributor to the GSP growth we did see (with a 0.4 percentage point contribution from public administration and safety).
On the 2015-16 GSP data, also see Pete Faulkner’s post:
Pete notes Queensland Treasury may have a better understanding of Queensland’s exports than the ABS, and that the ABS may be under-estimating our GSP growth. I would suggest Queensland Treasury should publish an explanation for the discrepancy between its GSP estimates and the ABS’s.