The first exports of LNG from Curtis Island off Gladstone are expected to occur later this month, and they can’t come soon enough for the Queensland economy, with our current economic weakness confirmed by State Final Demand estimates in yesterday’s National Accounts data (see chart below). The drop in State Final Demand (which doesn’t include exports) is due to the well-known drop off in heavy construction work associated with the resources sector. This is a big shock to our economy, and our successful recovery from it will depend a lot on how quickly LNG exports can boost economic growth and how much of the export earnings end up being retained in our economy. It’s unclear to me just how much Queensland will benefit at this stage. While there are jobs associated with the LNG exports, there are far fewer jobs than the jobs involved in the construction phase. And while the Queensland Government will capture some of the benefits via royalties (some $1/2 billion a year), large shares of the profits associated with the export of LNG are likely to flow overseas or interstate. So, even though Gross State Product will boom due to LNG exports in the next couple of years, the actual impact on employment and incomes of Queenslanders may be less exciting.
-
Recent Posts
- Most host cities lose money on the Olympics – SEQ Olympics needs to be delivered cost-effectively
- Interest rates and inflation with Michael Knox, Chief Economist of Morgans
- ABC radio story on Hollywood blockbusters crowding out local productions featuring David Williamson and me
- ‘Hollywood Australia’ supported by generous tax credits and other government subsidies
- Post-JobKeeper viability a concern of many Qld businesses
Top Posts & Pages
- Most host cities lose money on the Olympics - SEQ Olympics needs to be delivered cost-effectively
- SEQ should note growing realisation the Olympics is a waste of money
- Heat map of Brisbane metro property prices – big opportunities in the Western corridor?
- Top twenty largest cities and towns in Queensland by population
- Is North Qld under-funded by the State Government relative to the South East?
- Michael Porter on Cairns's tourism cluster
- Great Reset podcast chat with Darren Brady Nelson
- Qld Premier deserves some criticism, but she's right to highlight needs of struggling tourism-dependent businesses
- Surveillance Capitalism with Darren Brady Nelson - latest Economics Explained episode
- The Gig Economy - Economics Explained episode with Darren Brady Nelson
Archives
- February 2021
- January 2021
- December 2020
- November 2020
- October 2020
- September 2020
- August 2020
- July 2020
- June 2020
- May 2020
- April 2020
- March 2020
- February 2020
- January 2020
- December 2019
- November 2019
- October 2019
- September 2019
- August 2019
- July 2019
- June 2019
- May 2019
- April 2019
- March 2019
- February 2019
- January 2019
- December 2018
- November 2018
- October 2018
- September 2018
- August 2018
- July 2018
- June 2018
- May 2018
- April 2018
- March 2018
- February 2018
- January 2018
- December 2017
- November 2017
- October 2017
- September 2017
- August 2017
- July 2017
- June 2017
- May 2017
- April 2017
- March 2017
- February 2017
- January 2017
- December 2016
- November 2016
- October 2016
- September 2016
- August 2016
- July 2016
- June 2016
- May 2016
- April 2016
- March 2016
- February 2016
- January 2016
- December 2015
- November 2015
- October 2015
- September 2015
- August 2015
- July 2015
- June 2015
- May 2015
- April 2015
- March 2015
- February 2015
- January 2015
- December 2014
- November 2014
- October 2014
- September 2014
- August 2014
- July 2014
- June 2014
- May 2014
- April 2014
- March 2014
- February 2014
- January 2014
- December 2013
- November 2013
- October 2013
- September 2013
- August 2013
- July 2013
- June 2013
- May 2013
- April 2013
- March 2013
- February 2013
- January 2013
- December 2012
- November 2012
- October 2012
- September 2012
- August 2012
- July 2012
- June 2012
- May 2012
- April 2012
- March 2012
- February 2012
- January 2012
- December 2011
- November 2011
- October 2011
- September 2011
- August 2011
- July 2011
- June 2011
- May 2011
- April 2011
- March 2011
- February 2011
- January 2011
- December 2010
- November 2010
- October 2010
- September 2010
- August 2010
- July 2010
- June 2010
Categories
- Agriculture
- Arts
- Basin Plan
- Brisbane
- Budget
- Cairns
- China
- Climate change
- Competition policy
- Crime
- Cyclones
- Education
- Energy
- Environment
- Exports
- Floods
- Gladstone
- Gold Coast
- Health
- Housing
- India
- Industry policy
- Infrastructure
- Ipswich
- IR
- Labour market
- Mackay
- Macroeconomy
- Media
- Migration
- Mining
- nfps
- North Queensland
- Population
- Productivity
- queensland
- Queensland Government
- Queensland Rail
- qut
- Retail trade
- Rockhampton
- Social policy
- Tax
- Toowoomba
- Tourism
- Townsville
- Trade
- Transport
- Uncategorized
- VET
- Water
- Wide Bay-Burnett
Blogroll
Gene a very good and (almost definitely) accurate read of the impact of LNG exports on the Queensland economy.
Now that we can export the gas and Queensland’s prices will be dictated by world markets, any idea what is likely to happen to the domestic price of gas? I cannot imagine gas prices going down, so the pendulum of relative prices between coal fired power and gas will be swinging back towards coal. I think it is these subsequent impacts from the creation of a new export product that may have more of a bearing for the Queensland economy than the LNG industry itself (setting the royalties aside).
Thanks Jim, great point and a good question. Please see my earlier post:
https://queenslandeconomywatch.com/2014/09/14/if-you-want-to-understand-the-east-coast-gas-market-come-to-this-presentation/