Victoria still beating Queensland in interstate migration & population growth

Since late 2012, Queensland has been losing people to Victoria, a reversal of the historically positive net flow of people from Victoria to Queensland (see chart below based on the latest ABS population estimates published Thursday last week). While the net loss to Victoria from Queensland has only been around 1,000 people each year, it is at such variance with the historical record that it warrants some concern.

demostats_jun16_chart0

Queensland historically led Australia in net interstate migration, reflecting the attractiveness of our climate, lifestyle and economic opportunities, but now Victoria is on top (see chart below). While Queensland gained 11,600 people from other States and Territories in 2015-16, largely from NSW, Victoria gained 16,700 people, including around 1,000 people from Queensland.

demostats_jun16_chart1

Victoria also leads Australia in population growth, while Queensland is only growing at around the national average growth rate (see chart below).

demostats_jun16_chart2

As I have commented previously, I think Victoria has surged ahead partly because of large improvements in the liveability of Melbourne relative to South-East Queensland. SEQ’s decline in relative liveability was largely due to our failure to properly manage the population surge we experienced in the 1990s and early 2000s (see this QEW post from March). Also, the fact Queensland has a relatively less diverse economy, heavily dependent on mining, has not helped. In recent years, Queensland has unfortunately not been generating the full-time jobs that would attract people from other States and prevent Queenslanders from leaving (see chart below). Indeed, the number of full-time employed persons in Queensland declined in the twelve months to November by almost 12,000 or by 0.7 percent. Over the same period, the number of full-time employed persons in Victoria increased by around 74,000 or by 3.7 percent.

demostats_jun16_chart3

Thankfully, interstate migration to Queensland has started to recover from the very low levels of 2014-15 (as indicated in the first chart above), but it is still well below levels seen in the 1990s and early 2000s. I expect it will recover further, as the Queensland economy appears set to perform better than other States and Territories over 2017, but I have no doubt we will continue to lose many talented Queenslanders to Victoria, given its very attractive lifestyle and career opportunities.

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3 Responses to Victoria still beating Queensland in interstate migration & population growth

  1. Glen says:

    We have two main corporate offices in Australia, Melbourne and Brisbane which was always the largest, unless tied to specific state roles staff can operate out of either, the Melbourne office keeps growing and Brisbane goes backwards to the point that Melbourne is now larger than Brisbane by some margin. As you point out Gene career opportunities seem to be the main catalyst, particularly for those with ambition to climb the corporate ladder and also opportunities for spouses as well. Considering the loss of manufacturing jobs in Victoria it has done a good job to push the corporate and lifestyle to attract people and maintain a good economy.

  2. robsonap0 says:

    We often notice these trends near their peak – when there is sufficient evidence to defend a theory. I suspect with QLD’s economic growth accelerating (and WA too if commodity price continue to improve) Victorian population growth will ease. If interest rates increase then the house price boom in Sydney and Melbourne will likely ease, and possibly so too will dwelling construction. Sydney has a lot of infrastructure work in the pipeline which will help support jobs there. Melbourne does not to the same extent.

    There will be a point where Melbourne becomes too crowded and commute times become longer. Eventually the quality of life there will deteriorate.

    Of course what we don’t know is the type of people moving to Victoria. Are they unemployed miners from WA or QLD returning home? Often we tend to assume the socio-economic status of people who move between states is the same – or “average”. It could be those who move to Victoria have lost their high paying mining jobs in QLD/WA and are taking lower paid jobs in Victoria.

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