Tag Archives: budget

Treasury wants to acknowledge unreliability of budget estimates

Posted on November 18, 2013 by Gene Tunny

There’s a great new working paper out today from the Commonwealth Treasury, Estimates of Uncertainty Around Budget Forecasts, which suggests a change to budget reporting that would make it hard for current and future Australian Governments to claim they will … Continue reading →

Posted in Budget | Tagged , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Why have a debt ceiling?

Posted on October 22, 2013 by Gene Tunny

I have no problem with the Federal Government pushing to raise the debt ceiling to $500 billion (i.e. around one-third of the level of our GDP of $1.5 trillion), which on current projections is likely to be several tens of … Continue reading →

Posted in Budget | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Disasters have had huge budgetary impacts

Posted on June 4, 2013 by Gene Tunny

The Queensland State Budget is out and it contains a clear analysis of the huge budgetary impact of natural disasters, particularly: the large expenditure associated with disasters (e.g. around $2.5 billion to deal with ex-Tropical Cyclone Oswald’s impacts); and the … Continue reading →

Posted in Budget, Cyclones, Floods | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Brisbane ABC radio interview from this morning – why is budget forecasting so difficult?

Posted on May 31, 2013 by Gene Tunny

Steve Austin of 612 ABC Brisbane asked me an interesting question this morning: why is budget forecasting so difficult for Treasury departments? You can listen to my answer at this link: The Upcoming Budget For further information on the challenges … Continue reading →

Posted in Budget, Tax | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment

Government has to rely on inefficient taxes to fix budget – GST reform needed

Posted on May 27, 2013 by Gene Tunny

Among other 2013-14 Queensland Budget decisions, Treasurer Tim Nicholls today announced that the Government would be: Increasing the insurance duty on general insurance products from 7 to 9 per cent to assist the state in funding the NDIS (Disability Care … Continue reading →

Posted in Tax | Tagged , , , , | 2 Comments

What’s really happening with Commonwealth payments to Qld for health?

Posted on May 16, 2013 by Gene Tunny

While Commonwealth Health Minister Tanya Plibersek has claimed the Budget gives $1bn extra for Queensland hospitals, Queensland Treasurer Tim Nicholls is criticising the Commonwealth for cuts to health and other areas of Government. For example, Mr Nicholls presented this table … Continue reading →

Posted in Budget, Health | Tagged , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Long-term education target unlikely to be met – haven’t we learned from previous unachievable targets?

Posted on May 15, 2013 by Gene Tunny

The National Plan for School Improvement released with the 2013-14 Commonwealth Budget has the potential to signficantly lift educational outcomes across Australia and is therefore one of the positives of this Budget. But I’m skeptical of the Government’s stated ambition … Continue reading →

Posted in Budget, Education | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

More signs of slowing growth in resources sector – bad news for Qld budget

Posted on May 13, 2013 by Gene Tunny

Queensland Treasury already made a big downward revision of $1.4 billion over four years in mining royalties in the 2012-13 Mid-Year Fiscal and Economic Review last December, and it may need to shave some more off given the bad news … Continue reading →

Posted in Budget, Housing, Macroeconomy, Mining | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments

Forward estimates budgeting needs rethinking in more volatile economic times

Posted on April 29, 2013 by Gene Tunny

Today’s speech by Prime Minister Gillard is a good attempt at explaining the Government’s budgetary challenges, but I was unconvinced by this line in the speech: The Budget will outline the fiscal path for the coming four years, one designed … Continue reading →

Posted in Budget | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments

Qld Government should sell assets – further spending cuts would weaken economy further

Posted on April 19, 2013 by Gene Tunny

Given the weakness in the Queensland economy in recent months, it’s unsurprising Government revenues have fallen short of forecast levels, and the Government is considering  asset sales recommended by Peter Costello’s Commission of Audit, as reported by the Courier-Mail this … Continue reading →

Posted in Budget | Tagged , , , , , , | 5 Comments