The Sydney property boom and interstate migration to Qld

Regular QEW blog reader and occasional contributor Mike Willis asked some good questions in response to my post yesterday on Five million Queenslanders by EOFY 2017-18, which noted interstate migration to Queensland is trending up.

“Gene, this data is reflected in other anecdotal trends of demand in SE Qld. It looks like the post-GFC and post-mining boom hangovers may be over? Or is this just the traditional ripple effect in SE Qld from the Sydney property boom?”

The answer to the first question is yes, as the Queensland economy has been recovering nicely over the last year or so. The answer to the second question is very likely yes as well, and the pick up in interstate migration is a result of both factors. Mike had actually predicted the “ripple effect” from the Sydney property boom and had forecast a pick up in interstate migration to Queensland in a QEW post back in June 2015. Certainly a pick up in interstate migration from NSW has been responsible for much of the recovery in interstate migration to Queensland in recent years (see chart below).

NIM_by_States

And the increase in net interstate migration from NSW has been due to an increase in arrivals to Queensland from NSW rather than a fall in departures to NSW from Queensland (chart below).

Arrivals and departures

No doubt some Sydneysiders have decided to take advantage of the large house price differential between Sydney and Brisbane (or the GC or elsewhere), selling their houses in Sydney and moving up here to buy a comparable or superior property, and still having money left over (see chart below).

median house prices

REIQ Chairman Rob Honeycombe and Propertyology’s Simon Pressley have also made some interesting observations on this issue. See this Domain report from earlier this year:

House price disparity between Sydney and Brisbane set to spur northern migration

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