The Brisbane Times reported the other day that Brisbane renters were being offered inducements such as iPads, suggesting that supply growth has got ahead of demand growth in Brisbane recently. This should reduce the enthusiasm of investors for the Brisbane market, and we should expect a reduction in unit approvals in the year ahead, which will eventually have an impact on construction activity. The rest of Australia has already seen a major decline in unit approvals, driving total building approvals figures down (see chart based on latest ABS data below), and Queensland will very likely follow the rest of Australia in the coming months.
50% of the ‘purchasers’ of the these apartments are from NSW and Victoria using their incredibly overvalued property as security – another 25% are from overseas, probably from China with equally dubious security.
Anyone who doesn’t see the train wreck coming for Australian banks and in particular, Genworth isn’t really thinking too hard.
Over a decade of supply in the ‘pipeline’.
Anybody remember 2008/09 on the Gold Coast when nobody could settle on multiple buildings? Multiply that by a large factor.
Systemic risk all over it and APRA is about 4 years behind the curve.
Thanks White Elephant. Good points.
Compounding this will be lot of stock to hit the market from foreign investors, particularly the Chinese who will finally realise that buying property and leaving it empty with no income at all from the asset, is flawed. It only takes 3 devalued sales in one building to completely devalue the whole project and provide a new baseline for valuations. As White Elepahnt points out that will create interesting times for the banks and mortgage insurance providers in the year ahead.
Yes, good points Glen. Thanks!