Building approvals data difficult to interpret

While I feel the Queensland building industry will recover later this year, it’s difficult to be confident there is any significant improvement in building approvals, which are a reasonably good forward indicator of activity:

While growth in the ABS trend estimate is positive, this could change if there are another few months of low approvals. I’ve never had much confidence in ABS trend measures because they are basically backward-looking moving averages.

Commentary from Peter Faulkner from Conus Consulting is here:

Building approvals weak but trend still points up

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