Qld Treasury expects weak employment growth in short-term

Yesterday’s new ABS labour force data were weird (see OESR information brief). While the Queensland unemployment rate came down to 5.1% seasonally adjusted from 5.5% the month before, employment barely grew. So while unemployment fell, it may have fallen because many of the 8,100 people who left the unemployment pool gave up looking for work. I find these figures hard to reconcile with strong data on, among other things, expected investment in Queensland, state final demand, retail trade and improving building approvals. OESR, however, is pessimistic based on these new labour force data and ANZ job ads data:

With global economic conditions continuing to weigh on business sentiment and recent declines in indicators, such as ANZ Job Ads, any employment growth in Queensland will likely be subdued over the near–term.

This seems too pessimistic to me. I’m going to stick by my rule not to worry too much about one month’s set of figures.

This entry was posted in Labour market, Macroeconomy. Bookmark the permalink.

One Response to Qld Treasury expects weak employment growth in short-term

  1. I’m afraid it’s not just one month of weak numbers. Total employed are now barely above the numbers in Nov 2011 (s.a.) and Oct 2011 (trend). The only reason for the big drop in the unemployment rate would appear to be a large number of females removing themselves from the market. Participation rate for women is down to 60.6 (levels not seen since early 2008).
    I agree this is hard to reconcile with other stronger indicators but until we see PR rates staring to pick up again (both for men and women) I think we need to take the headline unemp rate with a pinch of salt…jobs growth is still weak in QLD.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )


Connecting to %s