State and regional unemployment rates in this time of COVID-19 with Pete Faulkner

Mission Beach-based economist Pete Faulkner from Conus Consulting has been in the news recently with his estimates of the massive adverse impacts that measures to combat coronavirus are having on Queensland’s regional economies (e.g. see the InQueensland report Jobless numbers blow out in the southeast, Gold Coast to hit 17 per cent). I spoke with Pete this afternoon about his latest set of forecasts, although I should note that, given the announcement from the Premier today regarding a relaxation of restrictions from next weekend, Pete will have to update these estimates over the next couple of days, so they should be a bit less awful in the second half of the year. You can listen to the interview here:

And here’s a snapshot of Pete’s most recent estimates:

forecast table 200508

Highlights of the interview include:

  • 4:30 – Pete explaining the methodology underlying his forecasts
  • 6:40 – why Queensland is disproportionately affected by restrictions to combat the virus
  • 9:00 – discussion of regional impacts (Gold Coast, Cairns, Townsville, etc.)
  • 17:30 – why the recovery may look like a Nike swoosh
  • 21:00 – how a sharply rebounding China could make Australia the lucky country
  • 24:00 – impacts on balance sheets and the economic contribution of JobKeeper

Check out Pete’s Conus Blog post on the forecasts.

This entry was posted in Cairns, Gold Coast, Labour market, Macroeconomy, North Queensland, Townsville, Uncategorized and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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