CCIQ Coronavirus interview – Chief Economist “very concerned” about potential impacts

The Courier-Mail‘s alarming story on Thursday Coronavirus to cause chaos for Queensland businesses prompted me to get in touch with the Chamber of Commerce & Industry Queensland (CCIQ) to seek a briefing on what they’ve learned from their various information sources. I spoke with CCIQ’s Chief Economist Marcus Smith and Senior Policy Advisor Gus Mandigora at CCIQ’s offices on Wickham Terrace at Spring Hill, Brisbane on Friday afternoon and recorded the following interview…

Here are the timestamps for some of the highlights:

  • 3.20: CCIQ Chief Economist Marcus Smith is “very concerned about where [coronavirus] could possibly lead”, particularly given 1/3 of Qld’s merchandise exports go to China and also due to large number of Chinese international visitors for tourism and education
  • 4:45: live & fresh seafood exports to China have been severely affected
  • 6:15: Gus mentions CCIQ has been talking to freight forwarders and has heard some disturbing news – e.g. some ships at sea may be unable to dock in China
  • 9:15: Marcus on the potential macroeconomic impact of coronavirus – we’re “heading into uncharted territory” – China 6.5x larger than at time of SARS in 2003 and now 20% of global economy
  • 12:55: Marcus notes consumer and business sentiment already quite low at the moment – tax cuts and interest rate cuts haven’t had the desired effects because people saved the extra money rather than spending it
  • 13:45: I ask Gus about the state government’s response and how CCIQ is contributing to it
  • 15:00: Gus gives us a preview of CCIQ’s upcoming submission to the Queensland Government regarding its coronavirus response – CCIQ wants immediate financial support for affected businesses and longer-term support to help businesses diversify their customer bases, so they’re not so dependent on China
  • 18:30: Marcus gives us a run down on what proportions of different export commodities are going to China
  • 20:00: Marcus mentions he’s concerned about adverse indirect/multiplier impacts on Queensland’s already vulnerable, drought-affected regional economies
  • 22:50: Gus explains a key source of intelligence on business impacts for CCIQ: certificates of origin they issue to exporters (check out CCIQ’s Export Documentation page)

I’m extremely grateful to Marcus and Gus for taking the time to chat with me this afternoon. The only downside was that I’m now more worried about the likely impact of coronavirus on the state economy than I was earlier in the week when I posted:

Coronavirus and the Qld economy

As Gus noted in the interview, it’s a rapidly evolving situation. I’ll aim to keep you up to date with developments over the coming weeks.

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6 Responses to CCIQ Coronavirus interview – Chief Economist “very concerned” about potential impacts

  1. Peter Maver says:

    What do you think about Rice Universities new tech to make graphene out of coal to to be used in all cement and bitumen globally? See link here – this would reduce the cost of cement by 30% and reduce greenhouse gases by 8%.
    If the Queensland government capable of taking advantage of this opportunity?

  2. cairnseconomy says:

    Good luck with that and the misinformation comes in. You went wrong when you consulted CCIQ where you should have consulted the ABS/ATO data on personal income which would indicate……. oh dear. It’s a rather limited and very old demographic.

  3. cairnseconomy says:

    “20:00: Marcus mentions he’s concerned about adverse indirect/multiplier impacts on Queensland’s already vulnerable, drought-affected regional economies”

    Pokie numbers are going beserk in agricultural areas in FNQ. AACo is up 10%+ this week.

  4. cairnseconomy says:

    Pokie numbers indicate unusual strength on both Cassowary Coast and Tableland, The first time I can recall where this has driven the SA4 data over the Cairns City. However the point is that stereotypes can be misleading. Tourism ain’t what it was in Cairns.

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