Qld unemployment rate falls below 6% to 5.9% (in trend terms)

This is just a quick post to update you on the September labour force estimates released by the ABS today: the Queensland unemployment rate has fallen to below 6% in trend terms and is now at 5.9% (see chart below). This is the lowest rate in almost four years (since November 2013) and hopefully we’ll see further falls and convergence to the national unemployment rate, now at 5.5% (both trend and seasonally adjusted).

LF_Sep17_chart1

Over the last year or so, Queensland has seen a strong recovery in the jobs market, with employment growing at 4.1% through-the-year (see chart below). I should note that this was largely due to an increase in part-time employed persons (+64,700) rather than full-time employed persons (+31,100). And the public service has made a disproportionate contribution to employment growth, as discussed in previous posts.

LF_Sep17_chart2

Despite these qualifications, the jobs data are very positive for the Palaszczuk Government (see chart below), which will soon be fighting for its political life, as the rise of One Nation threatens its chances of forming government after the next election, widely expected to be held by the end of this year.

LF_Sep17_chart3

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3 Responses to Qld unemployment rate falls below 6% to 5.9% (in trend terms)

  1. Russell Rogers says:

    Hi Gene, Whilst I agree lots of jobs for public service. Is there any finer resolution? I am thinking:
    Mining: I am in the industry and I can see a pickup and it appears jobs adds are appearing. Too early for Adarni Carmichael mine at this stage though.
    TC Debbie Disaster relief. I have interest in Airlie Beach and lots of tradies moved into town. Can hope that this has had some inpact on overall employment as TC Debbie effected a lot of areas.

    • Gene Tunny says:

      Yes, I recall internet vacancies data support the mining pick up story. There are quarterly data by industry available but they are highly volatile due to sampling error. I’ll try to make a discussion of where the jobs have come from my next post as I’ve had a similar question on Facebook. Thanks for the question Russell.

      • The quarterly industry jobs data, as you say, is not only volatile but also very lagged being presented only as a 4-quarters average at a regional level. I’ve been doing some work on this data set and, with some assistance from the ABS with provision of unpublished data, now have a Trend Industry Jobs series which I think helps provide a more timely, and reliable, indicator for industry jobs at the regional level in QLD.

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