For over a year now, I’ve been commenting on the reversal of the long-term pattern of Queensland gaining people from Victoria through interstate migration (e.g. see this post from June). This reversal has contributed to a large decline in interstate migration to Queensland. While we continue to gain people from NSW, the net loss of people to Victoria persists, as revealed by the most recent population data released by the ABS on Thursday last week (see charts below). Thankfully, the net loss to Victoria is still relatively small, at fewer than 1,000 people per annum. As I’ve noted previously, the net loss to Victoria is likely due to better job opportunities, particularly for professionals, in Victoria. Given the current state of the Queensland economy, this will probably continue for some time.
Our very low rate of interstate migration is a major cause of Queensland’s population growth rate being lower than the national average (see the Queensland Treasury brief). Given our relatively low population growth, we shouldn’t expect to see a strong economic recovery in the near term being led by the residential construction sector.