Qld Govt benefits from volatile jobs data – still vulnerable over bulk of jobs growth being part-time over first term

The volatile labour force data yielded a nice surprise for the Queensland Government today, with the seasonally adjusted rate falling from 6.8% to 6.1% between November and December last year, and the trend rate falling marginally, too, though staying the same rounded to one decimal place at 6.6% (see chart below).

urate_Dec14

While today’s numbers are good news for the Government, it is still vulnerable to the criticism that the growth in employment during its first term was all part-time, and full-time employment (in trend terms) appears to have fallen (see chart below). While the seasonally adjusted data showed an unbelievably large growth in full-time employment in December, the seasonally adjusted data nonetheless showed the bulk of jobs growth over the Government’s first term was part-time – around 6,000 additional full-time jobs and 52,000 additional part-time jobs since March 2012.

Change_since_election_chart_Dec14

Pete Faulkner has a very good post on the surprising labour force data:

Very strong labour force data; Qld too good to be true?

Advertisements
This entry was posted in Labour market and tagged , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

4 Responses to Qld Govt benefits from volatile jobs data – still vulnerable over bulk of jobs growth being part-time over first term

  1. Jim says:

    Gene

    This is welcome news.

    The labour force data is alway pretty volatile. When you have a look at the numbers from the ABS a bit deeper, the big driver of employment was growth in full time female jobs in December (up a whopping 31,000 in a month on a seasonally adjusted basis, but only 3,000 on a trend basis).

    You might reasonably expect a bit of a jump in the retail sector for that demographic in December. But that big?

    I suspect we may see a revision of the figure at some date in the future as this is by far the biggest monthly change (+ or -) in the series (since 1978). Also, there is rarely a difference of more than 1.5% between the numbers in the seasonably adjusted and trend series (i.e. they pretty closely track together as you would expect). The difference is over 3% at the moment (again pointing to an anomaly in the data). I’m not sure why there would be such a big discrepancy all of a sudden. Perhaps due to the rotation of the survey sample?

    • Gene Tunny says:

      Yes, I suspect much of it’s due to sample rotation. But I’d like to be wrong and for the economy to really be recovering strongly. I’m just a bit doubtful given the level of business confidence.

  2. KT says:

    I agree with Jim- good news for Qld and it’s about time we had some

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s