Qld Govt’s new jobs target much more achievable than previous 4% unemployment rate target

The Premier today announced a relatively conservative employment growth target of 209,000 new jobs over six years, which he based on Treasury advice (see LNP unveils plan for the Jobs of Tomorrow). So long as the economy doesn’t remain in its current weak state for the next six years – an unlikely prospect – this target should be achievable. In six-year periods in the past, the Queensland economy has generated many more than 209,000 jobs (see the chart below).

Six_years_employment_growth

The new jobs target requires just under 35,000 new jobs each year and an employment growth rate of 1.4-1.5% per annum, on average. Current Queensland Treasury forecasts and projections have employment growing at 1.5% in 2014-15, 1.75% in 2015-16, and at 2.5% per annum beyond that, so the Government’s commitment appears slightly more conservative than Treasury forecasts would suggest it needs to be. Of course, with uncertainty over the economic outlook and the ageing of the population, which will gradually reduce economic and employment growth rates, it’s good to be conservative in projecting future employment growth.

The new jobs target is much more sensible and achievable than the previous 4% unemployment rate target, which I’ve previously commented on:

4% unemployment rate target looking much less achievable now

ABC radio interview on unemployment, the 4% target and the four pillars plan

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5 Responses to Qld Govt’s new jobs target much more achievable than previous 4% unemployment rate target

  1. Gene, interesting graph which shows what a low target this actually is. Particularly so when we consider the increase in the size of the population seen over that 30 year period which makes such absolute number increases ever more achievable.
    The focus on jobs growth is certainly welcomed but plucking a (very low) number out of the air without any recognition that such a number might bear no relation to unemployment rates (given that we certainly don’t know what’s going to happen to PR) seems utterly pointless.

    • Gene Tunny says:

      Yes, I agree. There isn’t really much point having any sort of labour market target given so many factors are outside of the Government’s control. Thanks for the comment, Pete.

  2. Katrina Drake says:

    Particularly unimpressed by the political announcements on employment growth – particular as the promise of jobs is based on coal mining and casinos. I was hoping for a tad more imagination and creatively in employment growth than relying on the black arts of environmental destruction from coal mining and social degradation of casinos.

    Great options – Sell our assets, send our children down the mines, and gamble our souls. No wonder I am dreading really this election.

    ( By the way, I checked Seek this morning, none of the promised 200,000 Adina jobs advertised yet, must be holding off until after the election. )

  3. Katrina Drake says:

    Oops – Adani. My apologies for that typo – I would hate anyone to send there CV to the wrong company.

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