Good pick up in home loans in Qld over 2013

I agree with MacroBusiness’s assessment (New home finance takes a breather) that the number of loans for the construction or purchase of new houses, which is linked closely with the health of the building industry, picked up in Queensland over the last twelve months, although it remains below levels seen in the mid-2000s (see chart below). Loans for the purchase of established dwellings also increased over the last twelve months, although not to a level that would overly excite the property market. I expect 2014 will also see good growth in home loans in Queensland as confidence in the economy continues to recover.

housingfinanceN.B. the data in the charts above are not seasonally adjusted. Typically there is a sharp drop in home loans in January, which is apparent in the charts above.

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3 Responses to Good pick up in home loans in Qld over 2013

  1. Katrina Drake says:

    Fascinating – but for me the real story on the macrobusiness website is the 500% increase in Engineering Construction – from $6B in 2000 to $33B in 2012. ( 4th chart in the link)

    It amazes me that there are any workers available for residential and non-residential construction, with the boom in Engineering Construction. Where did the workforce come from to cope with that expansion, and where are they going to go when the next downturn comes. I wondered why all the engineers I know have been working 60hr weeks over the last few years. A peak like that will explain the nervousness with investors in the big engineering companies Woley Parson and Cardno etc – its a big drop on the otherside.

    • The Happy Hillbilly says:

      I tend to agree this is likely Katrina. Jessica Irvine penned an article the other day (sorry, no link) declaring that the soft landing following the end of the mining investment boom has now been achieved. I’m not sure where she got this idea. The mining investment boom has not ended, nor has it even started to turn down – it is still tracking sideways at about the highest level in history.

      Yes, thousands of jobs have been lost in mining over the past 18 months or so but this is not because mining investment has started declining. It is because it has stopped getting bigger, that’s all. I tend to think that job losses in mining and mining-related industries have really only just begun and will continue to play out over the next few years. I think we will need to see some pretty strong growth from other sectors to replace the contribution that mining investment has been making. Increased residential building will be helpful but I’m not yet convinced it will be enough.

  2. The Happy Hillbilly says:

    “It amazes me that there are any workers available for residential and non-residential construction, with the boom in Engineering Construction.”

    I live in an area undergoing such a boom – the number of people speaking in Kiwi, British and Irish accents is quite something. Quite a few Africans even. Many of these people have not become permanent residents and will go home when the work dries up, so that should be helpful in not adding to the unemployment rate (though the local economy will miss the spending these highly-paid workers contribute while they are here)

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