In its media release on its new population projections yesterday, the ABS noted:
“Highlights from the ABS projections include Perth overtaking Brisbane in 2028, at three million people, and then ten years later, the Australian Capital Territory overtaking Tasmania.”
This was picked up by the Brisbane Times, but I believe this claim, which is based on the ABS’s defined Greater Capital City Statistical Areas (GCCSA), is misleading, because the ABS’s GCCSA for Brisbane excludes the Gold and Sunshine Coasts. This ignores the reality of the South East Queensland (SEQ) 200km City, which I’ve discussed before:
In the second post I’ve linked to above, I’ve charted the official Queensland Government population projections, which show SEQ is expected to grow to nearly 4.4 million people by 2031. This is larger than the ABS’s projected population for the whole of WA in 2031 of around 4 million people.
Hence I think the ABS’s claim about Perth over-taking Brisbane is a little misleading, as it ignores the reality of the 200km City.
Finally, I’d note that it’s possible the population within the boundaries of the Brisbane GCCSA could increase substantially if there were a more relaxed attitude in Brisbane City Council towards inner city development, as discussed by Brad Rogers in a recent guest post: