Disappointing vacancies data support Treasury’s very low employment growth forecast for 2012-13

In the Mid Year Fiscal and Economic Review 2012-13 released last month, Queensland Treasury revised down its forecast of 2012-13 employment growth from a weak 0.75% to a very weak 0.25%. The ABS job vacancies data released today lend support to Treasury’s new forecast, and suggest it will be some months yet before the labour market recovers (see chart below).

vacanciesI’ve previously posted on how the labour market sluggishness is likely to be only temporary (Temporary weakness due to public sector restraint continues), as recent State Government job cuts and spending restraint are significant contributors to the sluggishness, and I expect the fiscal restraint is only temporary. The Government, of course, will eventually need to boost spending on its own priorities to maximise its re-election chances.

 

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2 Responses to Disappointing vacancies data support Treasury’s very low employment growth forecast for 2012-13

  1. Pingback: Qld’s sluggish labour market persists – unemployment at 6.2% (compared with 5.4% nationally) | Queensland Economy Watch

  2. Pingback: Very surprising employment numbers for Qld – ABS needs to investigate volatility | Queensland Economy Watch

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