Toowoomba has just over 50,000 employed persons, so the potential loss of over 1,000 jobs through the indefinite closure of the Beef City meatworks is really bad news. If 1,000 people end up unemployed in the short-term, that will drive up Toowoomba’s unemployment rate from 4.2% to around 6.1%, compared with a State average of just over 5%. Furthermore, my rough guess is that the shut down could result in an additional 500+ jobs lost over the next year or two through flow on impacts. Media coverage is here:
More than 1000 Queensland meatworks jobs in limbo
Some research by a past colleague of mine in the early 2000s found Queensland’s regions adjust to labour market shocks through migration (see Regional unemployment: Some aspects and policy issues). Consistent with this finding, ultimately I expect many of the displaced workers will have to migrate out of Toowoomba to find new employment.
While the shut down is bad news for Toowoomba’s economy in the short-term, over the medium to longer-term Toowoomba’s prospects remain reasonable. The university campuses provide steady streams of income into the city, and some observers expect many retiring farmers from smaller Queensland Murray-Darling basin communities will move to the city to retire.
Queensland Economy Watch 