Signs are good, but Qld economy not roaring back yet

Paul Syvret in the Courier-Mail today has a good summary of recent positive economic news for Queensland (Queensland economy recovers from GFC with new jobless low of 5.6pc), but I think some of the commentators he interviewed are getting a bit too excited too early. While the outlook is good, there appears little reason to think the Queensland economy has “roared back”, the view of Justin Smirk from Westpac. Unemployment remains significantly higher than its pre-financial crisis rate (first chart below), and through-the-year employment growth (e.g. how much employment grew between November 2012 and November 2013) remains much lower (second chart below). Once the economy really roars back we’ll see much higher employment growth rates, particularly if interstate migration to Queensland recovers as well.

urate

ttygrowth

 

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