It’s good that Premier Newman is upbeat about the economy, but I’m less excited about yesterday’s ABS National Accounts figures than he appears to be, based on this morning’s Courier-Mail report:
While Queensland is performing relatively better than NSW and Victoria, in particular, growth is only around half of what it really needs to be, and the data simply confirm the economy was sluggish over the June quarter, as consumers have been reluctant to spend and non-mining businesses reluctant to invest. To a very small extent, State Government cutbacks have had an impact, but appear to have shaved no more than 0.2 percentage points off the growth rate.
The Courier-Mail has focussed on the through-the-year growth numbers (i.e. between June quarter 2012 and June quarter 2013) which show Queensland leading Australia (first chart below), but the quarterly numbers comparing June quarter with March quarter, show that our relative performance is a bit less impressive and similar to that of NSW’s performance. While WA had negative through-the-year growth, as investment has come off significantly from extraordinarily high levels in the previous year, it has nonetheless recorded reasonable growth in the June quarter.
For more on yesterday’s National Accounts data, see Queensland Treasury’s information brief.