There is some bad news for the Queensland Government in the Federal Budget released tonight (from p. 6 of Budget Statement 3):

GST paid to the States is also forecast to be lower than previous estimates. GST expected to be paid to the States in 2012-13 has been revised down by 5.6 per cent since the 2011-12 Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook as a result of continued wide-spread caution amongst consumers in the aftermath of the global recession.

Given that Queensland is expected to receive around $10 billion of GST revenue in 2012-13, this implies a loss of expected revenue of the order of $600 million. This wipes out any expected gains coming to Queensland as a result of the Grants Commission’s most recent review, according to which Queensland was expected to receive $10.27 billion in GST revenue in 2012-13 (see Table 2 of the Update Report). Instead, as reported in tonight’s budget, Queensland will now receive $9.67 billion – a downward revision of $600 million.