Category Archives: Macroeconomy

RBA embraces depression economics

Posted on October 2, 2012 by Gene Tunny

The best guide to the current economic turmoil in Western economies is Paul Krugman’s brilliant little book The Return of Depression Economics, and after today’s interest rate cut I’ve no doubt that it’s popular among the officials of the RBA. … Continue reading →

Posted in Macroeconomy | 2 Comments

Big call from ANZ strategist – $A to hit $US1.07 in longer run

Posted on September 18, 2012 by Gene Tunny

AFR Marketwrap (pay-walled) reports on a big call from an ANZ currency strategist on the Aussie dollar: The Australian dollar will continue to appreciate and could top $US1.07 in the longer run as major economies continue to loosen monetary policy … Continue reading →

Posted in Macroeconomy, Tourism | Leave a comment

Fitch downgrade of Qld credit rating is unwarranted

Posted on September 13, 2012 by Gene Tunny

Treasury officials generally put on a good morning or afternoon tea when staff from rating agencies such as Fitch, Moody’s and Standard and Poor’s come for their regular consultations on fiscal policy. If I were a Queensland Treasury official, I’d … Continue reading →

Posted in Budget, Macroeconomy | Leave a comment

Public sector job cuts may be showing up in unemployment data

Posted on September 7, 2012 by Gene Tunny

The Queensland unemployment rate slightly increased in August (see the nice OESR chart below), and the public sector job cuts (and hiring freeze) we’ve seen so far are a likely contributor, although again I’d caution not to read too much … Continue reading →

Posted in Budget, Labour market, Macroeconomy | Leave a comment

Retail trade restrained by stubbornly high saving rate

Posted on September 6, 2012 by Gene Tunny

Yesterday’s ABS National Accounts data were good news, showing a continuation of strong growth in demand in Queensland at 3.6% over the June quarter. One of the most interesting pieces of data in the National Accounts is the household saving … Continue reading →

Posted in Macroeconomy, Retail trade | 5 Comments

RBA Governor has serious questions to answer

Posted on August 21, 2012 by Gene Tunny

Based on the story just broadcast on the 7.30 Report, the RBA Governor may have been less than fully frank with Parliament and may have failed to report alleged criminal activity to the Federal Police. The ABC website first reported … Continue reading →

Posted in Macroeconomy | Leave a comment

Consumer sentiment decline most likely only temporary

Posted on August 20, 2012 by Gene Tunny

There is a good post at Macro Business by blogger Delusional Economics on Westpac’s consumer sentiment index, which has fallen sharply in Queensland: Sentiment nosedives in Queensland I expect consumer sentiment will rebound when next month’s budget reveals public service … Continue reading →

Posted in Budget, Labour market, Macroeconomy | Leave a comment

Brisbane housing market recovery call seems right

Posted on August 7, 2012 by Gene Tunny

Given the amount of money washing through the Queensland economy due to the resources boom, I think noted property expert Michael Matusik is right to claim the Brisbane housing market is recovering, as reported in the Courier-Mail: The Greater Brisbane … Continue reading →

Posted in Brisbane, Housing, Macroeconomy | Leave a comment

Bright outlook for Qld economy

Posted on July 20, 2012 by Gene Tunny

I agree with Access Economics’s assessment of the Queensland economic outlook reported in the Courier-Mail this morning: THE future for Queensland is bright, with the state back in control of its mojo. That’s the upbeat view of Deloitte Access Economics, … Continue reading →

Posted in Macroeconomy, Mining | Leave a comment

Great analysis of rebound in building approvals from HIA

Posted on July 3, 2012 by Gene Tunny

The strong rebound in building approvals across mainland Australia in May was welcome news today, although as noted by my former Treasury colleague Andrew Harvey, now Senior Economist at the Housing Industry Association, there are reasons for the rebound that … Continue reading →

Posted in Housing, Macroeconomy | 1 Comment