There is still no good news for Cairns and the Far North from the ABS, as reported by the Cairns Post (Far North Queensland’s unemployment rate tops Australia):

THE Far North’s jobless rate is again the highest in Australia after the number of unemployed people in the region rose nearly 3 per cent in May.

Official data released yesterday showed the region’s unemployment figure rose to 10.8 per cent last month, more than double the national average of 4.9 per cent.

Advance Cairns chief executive Stewart Christie said the figure was disappointing, especially since the jobless rate had recovered to 7.9 per cent in April after a post-Yasi slump in February and March.

But he said employment data was likely to improve in coming months as the reconstruction effort on the Cassowary Coast was boosted.

“It has taken longer to kick that off than everyone hoped but that work will absorb about 1000 local tradespeople when it starts,” Mr Christie said.

There’s no point getting too worried at this stage about the jump in the Far North unemployment rate back into double figures because the regional ABS labour force data are highly volatile (and they aren’t seasonally adjusted either although that’s more of an issue for months earlier in the year when new job seekers enter the labour force). The regional data are volatile because, although the Labour Force Survey has a large enough sample of households to give reliable statistics at a national level, the ABS has never given strong guarantees about the robustness of regional data.

My guess is that the Far North numbers are based on a sample of only a few hundred households in the region, meaning sampling error can be significant. You can see the volatility in the chart below of the Far North unemployment rate based on the ABS data. I’ve included a 12-month running average because I think it’s a good way to see through the sampling variability and seasonality in the figures.

The running-average Far North unemployment rate of 9% is an improvement over the 11-12% rate during the worst point of the slump, but it doesn’t appear to be improving any more.  Let’s hope that reconstruction spending helps out. Longer-term, the region may benefit from baby boomer retirees relocating to what is a very beautiful part of Australia.