The Queensland Treasurer Andrew Fraser today referred to a “jobs boom coming”:

Jobs boom ahead, Treasurer promises

It’s good the Treasurer is upbeat about our economy – that’s part of his job description – but the employment growth that Queensland Treasury is forecasting (3.0% p.a.) is only around the average employment growth (around 3.3% p.a.) Queensland has experienced over the last ten years (see chart below).

That said, reaching 3% employment growth p.a. may be an achievement, given that working age population growth is slowing down as baby boomers are retiring. The Treasury employment forecasts would imply a resurgence in interstate migration to Queensland, which is probably reasonable given the mining sector can afford to offer wages that encourage people to move. All things considered, the Treasury forecasts are reasonable, but, compared with the historical record, we aren’t exactly expecting a jobs boom.