The Queensland Government yesterday released revised population projections which project a Queensland population of 9.14 million in 2056, compared with a previous projection (from 2008) of 7.98 million in 2056. If fertility, migration, or longevity turn out to be at the upper end of expectations, Queensland’s 2056 population could exceed 11 million.

The revision to Queensland’s projected population is due to increases in the fertility rate and net overseas migration compared with the rates prevailing at the time of the 2008 projections. The increase is consistent with the Commonwealth Treasury’s big revision to Australia’s projected mid-century population, projected to be 36 million, according to the 2010 Intergenerational Report (IGR), compared with 29 million, according to the 2007 IGR.

The Queensland Government should have plenty of time to prepare for the previously unexpected additional 1 million people in 2056. For the next couple of decades, at least, the projected population has not been greatly revised. The projected population in 2031 was only revised up to 6.59 million from the previous projection of 6.27 million. This suggests that a big chunk of the revision for 2056 is due to the enduring and cumulative impact of higher fertility rates – so-called demographic momentum – as larger cohorts today breed larger cohorts in the future. This cumulative impact would not be fully apparent by 2031, but will have major implications by mid-century.