The Courier-Mail’s Patrick Lion went too far in his article on Queensland’s population growth this morning when he declared that:

And the state’s horror summer of cyclones and floods is threatening to scare thousands more would-be arrivals from moving to the Sunshine State.

The slowdown is a serious threat to Queensland’s ailing economy and the desperate need for skilled workers after years of booming interstate migration.

The number of people arriving from interstate has dropped from almost 30,000 three years ago to less than 10,000 last year.

The less than 10,000 interstate migrants figure relates to the 2009-10 financial year, when Queensland was still experiencing a temporary employment slowdown in the wake of the financial crisis. Fewer jobs meant fewer interstate migrants came here for work.

Even though interstate migration was low relative to recent history, Queensland’s population still grew by around 89,000 people in 2009-10. This was due largely to natural increase (births less deaths) of 39,800 and migration from overseas of 39,700. Queensland’s population growth rate remained respectable at 2.0% compared with 1.7% nationwide. Only WA had a higher growth rate at 2.2%.

Treasurer Andrew Fraser, quoted in Mr Lion’s article, makes the very good point that Queensland remains the number one destination for interstate migrants in Australia. In 2009-10, Queensland had net interstate migration of 9,576 people compared with 2,555 in Victoria, 1,962 in WA, and -10,540 in NSW (i.e. NSW lost over 10,000 people to interstate migration).

Sure, recent flooding and cyclones may deter some interstate migrants, but Queensland’s fundamental attractions – attractive jobs due to a resources sector that is massively expanding and a comfortable lifestyle with usually brilliant weather – will continue to draw people from interstate. And no doubt we’ll pick up a few interstate migrants who come up here to help in the reconstruction efforts.

Let’s wait for the 2010-11 figures before we make a call regarding Queensland’s population boom coming to an end. There’s every reason to suspect the pause in interstate migration is only temporary.

N.B. Figures used in this post are available from Queensland Treasury’s Office of Economic and Statistical Research and the ABS:

Information Brief – Australian Demographic Statistics June Quarter 2010

Australian Demographic Statistics June Quarter 2010