Yesterday’s ABS labour force data show that the flow-on effects of the resources boom are yet to translate into large numbers of jobs in the rest of the economy. Judith Sloan in the Australian today has a great description of the current state of the labour market:

CONDITIONS in the Australian labour market are soft. Not marshmallow soft, but soft like tofu.

Conditions have actually been subdued for some time – the number of people employed has been essentially flat for more than 12 months.

Recently there has been some jobs growth in Queensland, but it is at a very slow pace, of a few thousand new employed persons each month. Regardless the Bligh Government is only 7,400 jobs short of the target of 100,000 new jobs it set itself at the last election. At the current rate of jobs growth, I expect the target will be hit in around February 2012 (and possibly in January 2012 if the Government is lucky).

Given the one month’s delay in reporting the labour force statistics, this may rule out the Government calling an election in January or February because the positive message it needs on jobs growth may not yet have been reported. Hence I am somewhat skeptical about Antony Green’s prediction of a February or March election (Timetable for Future Australian Elections).