Earlier this year I encountered some resistance at various presentations I gave on the gloomy outlook for the Queensland economy, but I suspect I wouldn’t get much push back now. Today, the Courier-Mail is reporting on its latest YouGov poll results:
CONFIDENCE in Queensland’s outlook is at its lowest point in at least six years, with almost half of people surveyed saying the state is headed in the wrong direction.
The August Courier-Mail/YouGov Galaxy poll, published in today’s Queensland Business Monthly, revealed just 34 per cent of people thought the state was on the right trajectory.
Nationally, confidence is lacking, too. NAB’s Monthly Business Survey for August, published earlier this month, revealed:
Both business confidence and conditions declined in the month, with both now at +1 index point – well below long-run averages.
This is all unsurprising to me, as I’ve been concerned about the leading indicators of activity for a while now (e.g. see Qld: Hot or not? Presentation at the Brisbane Club).
On Wednesday, the ABS published its engineering construction (i.e. heavy/civil construction) estimates for June quarter 2019. Engineering construction work yet to be done (the so-called pipeline of activity) in Queensland in June quarter was 10% below its level in June 2018 (see chart below). It must be very depressing for construction contractors who can remember the mining investment boom days. In March quarter 2012, when the massive Gladstone LNG projects were underway, the pipeline of work to be done was seven times the size it is now.
For more on the economic outlook for Queensland, see my post from late August: